CAJ | 학술논문

由于气候系统变化和高强度人类活动的影响，天然年径流序列失去了一致性。为了适应变化环境对工程水文分析计算的新要求，本文以跳跃变异为例提出了基于极值同频率法的非一致性年径流过程设计方法：首先，采用水文变异诊断系统对不同时间尺度径流序列进行年际和年内分配情势变异分析；其次，根据年际变异和年内分配情势变异的时间点，将径流序列分段；再次，基于径流年际变异诊断结果，采用变化环境下非一致性水文频率计算方法计算不同时间尺度径流量变异前后过去不同保证率下的设计值；最后，基于径流年内分配变异诊断结果，在径流年内分配变异前后利用极值同频率法进行年径流过程设计。以东江岭下站为例，进行了非一致性年径流过程设计，并与未考虑“非一致性”影响的年径流过程设计结果进行了比较，发现岭下站设计年径流过程受“非一致性”影响显著，该结果可为东江流域水利工程的规划设计提供参考和依据。
유우기후계통변화화고강도인류활동적영향，천연년경류서렬실거료일치성。위료괄응변화배경대공정수문분석계산적신요구，본문이도약변이위례제출료기우겁치동빈솔법적비일치성년경류과정설계방법：수선，채용수문변이진단계통대불동시간척도경류서렬진행년제화년내분배정세변이분석；기차，근거년제변이화년내분배정세변이적시간점，장경류서렬분단；재차，기우경류년제변이진단결과，채용변화배경하비일치성수문빈솔계산방법계산불동시간척도경류량변이전후과거불동보증솔하적설계치；최후，기우경류년내분배변이진단결과，재경류년내분배변이전후이용겁치동빈솔법진행년경류과정설계。이동강령하참위례，진행료비일치성년경류과정설계，병여미고필“비일치성”영향적년경류과정설계결과진행료비교，발현령하참설계년경류과정수“비일치성”영향현저，해결과가위동강류역수리공정적규화설계제공삼고화의거。
Owing to the effects of human activities and climate change, the natural hydrological series lost their consistency. In order to adapt to a changing environment demanding for hydraulic engineering design, inconsistent annual runoff process design method based on extreme value with common frequency was pro?posed. Firstly,the hydrological variation diagnosis system(HVDS)was used to analyze the variation of differ?ent time scales runoff series and their annual distribution features. Secondly, according to the variation point, annual average flow series was divided into several time periods. Thirdly, the frequency distributions of different time scales runoff series before and after the change-point were conducted based on the hydro?logical frequency calculation theory for inconsistent series (HFCT) and the difference of means and various frequency characteristic values were analyzed. Finally, the method of extreme value with common frequency was used to calculate the annual runoff process in each time period. This study was applied at Lingxia sta?tion in Dongjiang River, and the inconsistent annual runoff process was designed. The difference of de?signed annual runoff process before and after the change-point at Lingxia station was analyzed. The results are valuable for the planning and design of hydraulic engineering in Dongjiang river basin.