CAJ | 학술논문

液化石油气价格变化大，为规避资金风险，经营企业须适度安排储气量。为此，从片区及用户历史用气数据出发，提出并运用SARIMA模型建模，以预测并指导下一阶段片区的储气量。采用历史数据进行检验，该建模方法能够更合理得为企业安排资金、组织液化石油气储量提供科学的决策支持，提高企业资金周转率，降低资金风险。
액화석유기개격변화대，위규피자금풍험，경영기업수괄도안배저기량。위차，종편구급용호역사용기수거출발，제출병운용SARIMA모형건모，이예측병지도하일계단편구적저기량。채용역사수거진행검험，해건모방법능구경합리득위기업안배자금、조직액화석유기저량제공과학적결책지지，제고기업자금주전솔，강저자금풍험。
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)price often changes.To avoid the financial risks,LPG inventory in the enterprise must be moderated.A modeling method was proposed,and SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average)model was used to model user’s actual consumption and organize the local area gas storage for the next short term.Experimental re-sults show that the prediction capacity of the proposed model is better than other models.It can help the enterprise to make scientific decision by organizing moderately the local area gas deposit.The funding turnover rate of the LPG enterprise is im-proved and enterprise’s financial risk is lowered.