CAJ | 학술논문

针对态势预测的多模型组合问题，提出了一种基于证据理论优化的态势组合预测模型。该模型首先对预测子模型进行训练，获得预测子模型的性能评价与指标权重分配；基于证据理论对多指标的权重分配结果进行融合，提高权重分配的精度；在预测完成后，基于指标可信度和证据理论对指标权重进行调整，优化多指标的评价能力。Matlab实验仿真结果表明，该模型能够依据态势曲线的变化动态优化组合权重，其预测精度优于典型预测模型。
침대태세예측적다모형조합문제，제출료일충기우증거이론우화적태세조합예측모형。해모형수선대예측자모형진행훈련，획득예측자모형적성능평개여지표권중분배；기우증거이론대다지표적권중분배결과진행융합，제고권중분배적정도；재예측완성후，기우지표가신도화증거이론대지표권중진행조정，우화다지표적평개능력。Matlab실험방진결과표명，해모형능구의거태세곡선적변화동태우화조합권중，기예측정도우우전형예측모형。
According to the problem of multi-model combination in situation forecast, a situation combination forecast model based on evidence theory optimization is proposed. The sub-model is trained to get the performance evaluation and the weight assignment. The weights assignment results of multi-index are fused and refined based on evidence theory. Multi-indexes weight is adjusted based on the confidence and evidence theory after situation forecast circle is finished, optimizing the evaluation ability of multi-indexes. Experiments results in Matlab show that the new model can dynamic adjust the weights in combination model, and it can get better forecast accuracy than typical forecast models.