CAJ | 학술논문

通过可计算一般均衡（C GE ）模型分析研究广东省在节能减排情景下的能源结构优化问题。首先对广东省构建C GE模型，形成一个10部门模型；然后通过广东省投入产出表等数据编制出广东省的社会核算矩阵（SAM）；最后，通过情景模拟分析得出广东省的理想能源结构。结果表明，在保持经济稳定增长时，广东省在低碳减排的情景下可以有效改善能源结构、减少化石能源的消费并提高低碳能源的比例。由此提出广东省能源结构优化的发展思路。
통과가계산일반균형（C GE ）모형분석연구광동성재절능감배정경하적능원결구우화문제。수선대광동성구건C GE모형，형성일개10부문모형；연후통과광동성투입산출표등수거편제출광동성적사회핵산구진（SAM）；최후，통과정경모의분석득출광동성적이상능원결구。결과표명，재보지경제은정증장시，광동성재저탄감배적정경하가이유효개선능원결구、감소화석능원적소비병제고저탄능원적비례。유차제출광동성능원결구우화적발전사로。
The article aims to study the optimization of energy structure under the background of energy conservation and e-mission reduction in Guangdong province through the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE )Model.It constructs the CGE model of Guangdong province and forms a ten-departments model.Then with the data obtained from the input-out-put table of Guangdong province,the author constructs the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)of Guangdong province.Final-ly,through the scenario analysis of the CGE model,the author obtains the ideal energy structure of Guangdong Province. The result shows that,under the premise of maintaining steady growth,Guangdong can effectively improve the energy struc-ture,reduce the consumption of fossil fuels and improve the proportion of low carbon energy.Based on this,the author puts forward the development direction of the optimization of energy structure in Guangdong province.