CAJ | 학술논문

采用OLG模型,考察了不同养老制度下的生育政策对生育水平、总产出以及人均产出的影响.模拟发现:随着生育意愿的持续下降,无论是维持生育政策不变还是放开生育政策,通过制定生育上限的政策,都几乎不会对宏观经济发生任何影响;在总产出和人均产出上,积累制养老模式和家庭储蓄养老模式高于现收现付制的养老模式;积累制养老模式在总产出和人均产出上轻微低于家庭储蓄养老模式,基于两者差别微小,从社会公平和当前人口结构的角度看,建议中国的养老模式逐渐过渡到由政府主导的自己养自己的积累制养老模式.
채용OLG모형,고찰료불동양로제도하적생육정책대생육수평、총산출이급인균산출적영향.모의발현:수착생육의원적지속하강,무론시유지생육정책불변환시방개생육정책,통과제정생육상한적정책,도궤호불회대굉관경제발생임하영향;재총산출화인균산출상,적루제양로모식화가정저축양로모식고우현수현부제적양로모식;적루제양로모식재총산출화인균산출상경미저우가정저축양로모식,기우량자차별미소,종사회공평화당전인구결구적각도간,건의중국적양로모식축점과도도유정부주도적자기양자기적적루제양로모식.
This paper uses the OLG method, examines the different birth policy under different pension system and the effect on future output and per capita output. The simulation show that, with the birth continue to fall, there is less or nothing impacts on macroeconomic whether maintain fertility policy unchanged or relax fertility policy; In output and per capita output, accumulation system pension and family savings pension mode is higher than pay-as-you-go pension mode. Accumulation system pension mode on the output and per capita output is slightly lower than family savings pension mode, based on the small differences, from the perspective of social justice and the current population structure, we suggest that China's pension mode should gradually transit to the accumulation pension mode.