CAJ | 학술논문

采用1984—2013年统计数据，运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验对广州市房地产投资与经济增长关系进行分析，结果表明：（1）房地产开发投资与GDP增长之间存在长期的均衡关系。房地产开发投资对GDP增长长期产生显著的正向促进作用；但在短期内，房地产开发投资对GDP的增长产生弱的反向影响。（2）格兰杰因果检验显示，在滞后2期时房地产开发投资对GDP存在单向的显著可信的Granger因果关系，反之则不成立。（3）脉冲响应分析显示，房地产开发投资对GDP产生持久的正向影响，且影响程度逐渐增强。
채용1984—2013년통계수거，운용협정분석화격란걸인과검험대엄주시방지산투자여경제증장관계진행분석，결과표명：（1）방지산개발투자여GDP증장지간존재장기적균형관계。방지산개발투자대GDP증장장기산생현저적정향촉진작용；단재단기내，방지산개발투자대GDP적증장산생약적반향영향。（2）격란걸인과검험현시，재체후2기시방지산개발투자대GDP존재단향적현저가신적Granger인과관계，반지칙불성립。（3）맥충향응분석현시，방지산개발투자대GDP산생지구적정향영향，차영향정도축점증강。
By using cointegration analysis and Granger causality tests, the relationship between real estate develop-ment investment and economic growth in Guangzhou is analyzed employing the statistic data from 1984 to 2013.It is concluded as follows:(1) There is a long-term equilibrium between real estate investment and GDP, and real estate investment has a strong positive effect on GDP growth in the long term, while the effect has turned into a neg-ative one in the short term.(2) Granger causality test shows that there exists a one-way remarkable causal relation-ship form real estate investment to GDP in 2 years'lag period, but not vice versa.(3)The generalized impulse re-sponse indicates that real estate development investment has a significant and lasting positive impact on GDP, and the influence gradually increases.