CAJ | 학술논문

受近年国际形势变化和国内经济转型的影响，“十二五”期间能源行业发展态势波动明显，特别是电力行业，加之相关政策和规划不断调整，“十三五”期间实现“2020年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重达到15％”目标的不确定性增大。为确保这一目标的实现，根据新形势下的变化构建了能源电力规划方案，基于规划方案重点提出了灵敏度分析和最大缺额分析2种方法，用以量化各类非化石能源的规划执行偏差对目标百分比的影响，并提出弥补方案。研究表明，水电、核电的开发进度及其消纳通道的建设情况，是影响目标百分比的主导因素；目标百分比能否达到15％，很大程度上取决于水电与核电是否能按规划完成开发利用；若2类电源的开发利用不足以达到规划目标，可以通过增加风电和太阳能发电予以弥补，但如果水电缺额达到58 GW以上，或者核电缺额达到27 GW以上，非化石能源“15％目标”几乎无法达成。加快建设川藏水电送出通道，有助于解决弃水问题，是实现非化石能源“15％目标”的有力保障。
수근년국제형세변화화국내경제전형적영향，“십이오”기간능원행업발전태세파동명현，특별시전역행업，가지상관정책화규화불단조정，“십삼오”기간실현“2020년비화석능원점일차능원소비비중체도15％”목표적불학정성증대。위학보저일목표적실현，근거신형세하적변화구건료능원전력규화방안，기우규화방안중점제출료령민도분석화최대결액분석2충방법，용이양화각류비화석능원적규화집행편차대목표백분비적영향，병제출미보방안。연구표명，수전、핵전적개발진도급기소납통도적건설정황，시영향목표백분비적주도인소；목표백분비능부체도15％，흔대정도상취결우수전여핵전시부능안규화완성개발이용；약2류전원적개발이용불족이체도규화목표，가이통과증가풍전화태양능발전여이미보，단여과수전결액체도58 GW이상，혹자핵전결액체도27 GW이상，비화석능원“15％목표”궤호무법체성。가쾌건설천장수전송출통도，유조우해결기수문제，시실현비화석능원“15％목표”적유력보장。
In recent years, international situation changes and domestic economic restructuring lead to the fluctuation of energy industry development trend during the 12th five year, especially electric power industry. The relative policy and plan have been adjusted. Under these influences, the non￣fossil energy 15% objective which would be realized in 2020 during the 13th five year is uncertain. To ensure the realization of this objective, a new energy and electric power planning was provided according to the changes under the new situation. Based on the planning scheme, the sensitivity analysis and the maximum deviation analysis methods were proposed to quantify the influence of the implementation deviation of non￣fossil energy planning on the target percentage. And the according suggestions were also provided. The research shows that the main influence factors of the target percentage are the development progresses of hydropower and nuclear power, as well as their output channel construction. Whether the target percentage can reach 15% largely depends on whether the development of hydropower and nuclear power can be completed according to the planning. If the development and utilization of two types of power supplies are not enough to reach the planning objectives, wind power and solar power generation can be increased to remedy the vacancy. But if the vacancy of hydropower exceeds 0. 58 billion kw, or that of nuclear power exceeds 0. 27 billion kw, the ‘15% objective’ of non￣fossil energy can’t be achieved. Accelerating the construction of the Sichuan￣Tibet hydropower output channel can help to solve the problem of waste water, which is a strong guarantee for the‘15% objective’ realization of non￣fossil energy.