电力需求侧管理
電力需求側管理
전력수구측관리
POWER DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT
2015年
4期
30-34
,共5页
李翔%欧阳森%冯天瑞%吴裕生%王克英
李翔%歐暘森%馮天瑞%吳裕生%王剋英
리상%구양삼%풍천서%오유생%왕극영
售电收入%组合预测模型%影响因素
售電收入%組閤預測模型%影響因素
수전수입%조합예측모형%영향인소
power sale income%combination forecasting model%influencing factors
针对供电企业售电收入结构复杂、影响因素多而导致预测困难的问题，对售电收入预测方法进行了深入研究。分析了售电收入计算原理，挖掘出售电量、用户类别、电价等3个关键影响因素；设计了包含5种适用于周期性变化数据算法的组合预测模型进行基础的预测工作；通过比较分析3种考虑不同影响因素的预测思路，提出了一种基于总售电量和售电均价预测值的售电收入预测方法；利用实际数据进行了预测和分析，结果表明，该方法预测精度高，实用性强。
針對供電企業售電收入結構複雜、影響因素多而導緻預測睏難的問題，對售電收入預測方法進行瞭深入研究。分析瞭售電收入計算原理，挖掘齣售電量、用戶類彆、電價等3箇關鍵影響因素；設計瞭包含5種適用于週期性變化數據算法的組閤預測模型進行基礎的預測工作；通過比較分析3種攷慮不同影響因素的預測思路，提齣瞭一種基于總售電量和售電均價預測值的售電收入預測方法；利用實際數據進行瞭預測和分析，結果錶明，該方法預測精度高，實用性彊。
침대공전기업수전수입결구복잡、영향인소다이도치예측곤난적문제，대수전수입예측방법진행료심입연구。분석료수전수입계산원리，알굴출수전량、용호유별、전개등3개관건영향인소；설계료포함5충괄용우주기성변화수거산법적조합예측모형진행기출적예측공작；통과비교분석3충고필불동영향인소적예측사로，제출료일충기우총수전량화수전균개예측치적수전수입예측방법；이용실제수거진행료예측화분석，결과표명，해방법예측정도고，실용성강。
Aming at the problem that the prediction of power sale income of power supply enterprises is difficult because of the complexity of its structure,and its many influencing factors,forecast?ing methods of power sale income were studied by comparison. Firstly, the formation mechanism of power sale income was deeply analyzed to find the main influencing factors; Secondly, three dif?ferent power sale income forecasting methods based on combina?tion forecasting model were proposed according to the characteris?tics of power sale income;Finally, the actual data was used to make some prediction and analysis,and the result showed that the power sale income forecasting method based on predictive values of total electricity sale has good prediction effect and practicability.
