CAJ | 학술논문

近年来随着流域经济社会的快速发展，密云水库流域的土地利用格局也发生了明显的改变，作为影响流域非点源污染输出的主要因素，探讨土地利用格局的演变对非点源污染的影响对有效控制非点源污染具有重要的意义。该文以密云水库上游流域为研究区，从土地利用变化与污染过程相互作用的角度出发，开展流域非点源污染过程对土地利用变化的响应研究。基于流域1995年、2000年、2005年3期的土地利用数据，基于SWAT（soil and water assessment tool）模型，模拟评价流域非点源污染负荷分布特征，并应用景观格局指数、典范对应分析（canonical correspondence analysis, CCA）和通径分析等方法，从全流域和三级保护区等多空间尺度，量化分析流域土地利用及其格局时空变化对非点源污染负荷的影响。研究结果表明流域的非点源负荷与土地利用格局间存在着密切的联系。格局指数能累积解释流域非点源污染负荷变化的56.3%。污染负荷受土地利用格局的破碎度和形状的影响较大。通径分析的结果表明，耕地、林地面积比例、形状指数和斑块密度是影响研究区非点源污染负荷输出的主要因子，其中形状指数和耕地面积比例对 TN、TP 负荷的解释能力要明显高于其他指标。从空间尺度上看，各格局因子与非点源污染负荷的关系具有尺度效应，随着空间尺度的递增，格局对负荷的解释程度降低，在较小的尺度范围内，尤其是一级保护区的解释能力最高，达到62.9%，表明离水库越近的区域应是非点源防治高度重视的区域。
근년래수착류역경제사회적쾌속발전，밀운수고류역적토지이용격국야발생료명현적개변，작위영향류역비점원오염수출적주요인소，탐토토지이용격국적연변대비점원오염적영향대유효공제비점원오염구유중요적의의。해문이밀운수고상유류역위연구구，종토지이용변화여오염과정상호작용적각도출발，개전류역비점원오염과정대토지이용변화적향응연구。기우류역1995년、2000년、2005년3기적토지이용수거，기우SWAT（soil and water assessment tool）모형，모의평개류역비점원오염부하분포특정，병응용경관격국지수、전범대응분석（canonical correspondence analysis, CCA）화통경분석등방법，종전류역화삼급보호구등다공간척도，양화분석류역토지이용급기격국시공변화대비점원오염부하적영향。연구결과표명류역적비점원부하여토지이용격국간존재착밀절적련계。격국지수능루적해석류역비점원오염부하변화적56.3%。오염부하수토지이용격국적파쇄도화형상적영향교대。통경분석적결과표명，경지、임지면적비례、형상지수화반괴밀도시영향연구구비점원오염부하수출적주요인자，기중형상지수화경지면적비례대 TN、TP 부하적해석능력요명현고우기타지표。종공간척도상간，각격국인자여비점원오염부하적관계구유척도효응，수착공간척도적체증，격국대부하적해석정도강저，재교소적척도범위내，우기시일급보호구적해석능력최고，체도62.9%，표명리수고월근적구역응시비점원방치고도중시적구역。
The loss of nitrogen and phosphorus via non-point source (NPS) pollution in the Chaobai river watershed has become the main pollution sources of river waters in the Miyun reservoir area in the past decades. Climatic conditions and human activities directly affect changes of runoff. In addition, land use types are closely related to NPS pollution. Climate change and human activities can potentially lead to changes in runoff and can significantly impact the regional hydrology and future availability of water resources. Researches showed that NPS pollution has become an important source affecting the quality of the Miyun reservoir water environment. Therefore, exploring the impact of land use change on NPS pollution under different climate scenarios has important practical implications for control non-point source pollution in this area. In this study, Miyun reservoir watershed was used as a study area to determine the response of non-point source pollution to land use change under different climate scenarios. An integrated model system was developed which included three parts, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) as the hydrological and non-point source pollution estimator; the Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA), and Path Analysis to explore the relationship between land use change and non-point source pollution loads. The statistical downscaling model was conducted to generate the different climate scenarios for discussing the impact on hydrological process and non-point source pollution losses. The results showed that SWAT model was suitable for the study area. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads decreased with the rainfall during 1995 to 2005, indicating that the rainfall was an important factor on the temporal variability of pollution loads. The spatial distribution of TN and TP loads were significantly affected by the comprehensive influence of rainfall and land use. The high-risk areas were mainly located in Chicheng, Chongli, and Fengning county. There was a significant correlation (P<0.05) between NPS pollution loads and landscape characteristics in the upper watershed of Miyun reservoir. Correspondence Analysis (CCA) and Path Analysis indicated that landscape variables can explain 56.3% variation of TN and TP loads. For landscape level, the fragmentation metrics, and shape metrics were the main pattern indices effectively affecting the variation of nutrient losses. For patch-class level, landscape metrics that affected the spatial variation of pollution process varied with land use types. The result of path analysis suggested that the proportion of arable land and forest land area, patch density, and shape index were the main pattern indices effectively affecting the nutrient pollution process. The interpretation capacity of proportion of arable land and shape index to TN and TP loads was greater than the other indicators. The relationship was closely associated with the spatial scale. With the spatial scales increased, the interpretation capacity of landscape variables reduced. Cumulative variances of the first grade protection zones are the highest in CCA ordination analysis, which reached 62.9%, indicating that the area around the reservoir area should be highly valued for the prevention and treatment of NPS pollution. As a result of this work, prioritized areas and the relationship between nutrients load and land use pattern can be used as information for implementation of conservation practices in the Miyun reservoir watershed.