CAJ | 학술논문

筛选出3类资源消耗指标和4类污染排放指标，分别与城镇化水平以及相关传导控制变量建立计量模型，并基于1996～2011年全国30个省(市、自治区)的面板数据进行检验。实证结论显示：城市供水总量、建成区面积分别与人口城镇化水平间存在正“U”型关系，拐点分别为64．38%和81．55%；能源消费总量、工业废气排放总量、工业废水排放总量、工业固体废物产生量和城市生活垃圾清运量分别与人口城镇化水平间存在倒“U”型关系，拐点分别为81．28%、66．57%、76．02%、63．61%和72．37%。通过与当前实际城镇化率比较，全国仅有北京、天津、上海和广东4个省区超过相关拐点，进入城镇化发展集约型阶段，而其余省区城镇化率离拐点均存在不同程度的距离。最后，围绕研究结论提出了推进新型城镇化的建议。
사선출3류자원소모지표화4류오염배방지표，분별여성진화수평이급상관전도공제변량건립계량모형，병기우1996～2011년전국30개성(시、자치구)적면판수거진행검험。실증결론현시：성시공수총량、건성구면적분별여인구성진화수평간존재정“U”형관계，괴점분별위64．38%화81．55%；능원소비총량、공업폐기배방총량、공업폐수배방총량、공업고체폐물산생량화성시생활랄급청운량분별여인구성진화수평간존재도“U”형관계，괴점분별위81．28%、66．57%、76．02%、63．61%화72．37%。통과여당전실제성진화솔비교，전국부유북경、천진、상해화엄동4개성구초과상관괴점，진입성진화발전집약형계단，이기여성구성진화솔리괴점균존재불동정도적거리。최후，위요연구결론제출료추진신형성진화적건의。
The authors match three types of resource consumption indexes and four types of pollution emission indexes respectively with urbanization level and the relative transmission control variables to construct measurement models,and tests are made by using panel data of 30 provinces ( cities or autonomous regions) from 1996 to 2011. Empirical results show that the total water sup-ply and the construction area of a city has positive"U" shape relationship with population urbani-zation level respectively,and the turning points are 64. 38% and 81. 55% respectively; total ener-gy consumption,total emission of industrial waste gas and waste water,total output of solid waste, and urban garbage disposal have reversed "U" shape relationships with population urbanization level respectively,with the turning points of 81. 28%,66. 57%,76. 02%,63. 61% and 72. 37%. By comparing with actual urbanization rate,the authors find out that only the four cities in-cluding Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai and Guangzhou surpass the relative turning points and have en-tered into the phase of intensive type of development. The urbanization rates of other provinces or regions have certain distance from the turning points. Finally,suggestions on promoting the new urbanization are proposed.