CAJ | 학술논문

利用中国1952～2012年全国、城镇以及农村居民实际人均消费数据，在三种不同的效用函数形式下，基于CF滤波得到的消费波动率对中国经济波动的福利成本进行了测算。研究结果表明：只要保证参数选取合理，即符合微观经济个体的理性行为，则无论采用何种形式的效用函数，对中国经济波动福利成本的定量分析均是有效的；利用CF滤波得到的消费波动率远小于传统的时间去趋和HP滤波等方法得到的消费波动率，更具稳健性，避免了传统方法可能会产生与事实相悖的问题；尽管中国经济波动的福利成本非常低，仅为0．1%，但却是美国福利成本的2．7倍，因此进一步降低中国福利损失的政府宏观调控政策仍然具有作用空间；经济波动对中国城镇居民造成的福利损失一般大于对农村居民造成的福利损失，这给政府政策制定和调整带来了一定的启示。
이용중국1952～2012년전국、성진이급농촌거민실제인균소비수거，재삼충불동적효용함수형식하，기우CF려파득도적소비파동솔대중국경제파동적복리성본진행료측산。연구결과표명：지요보증삼수선취합리，즉부합미관경제개체적이성행위，칙무론채용하충형식적효용함수，대중국경제파동복리성본적정량분석균시유효적；이용CF려파득도적소비파동솔원소우전통적시간거추화HP려파등방법득도적소비파동솔，경구은건성，피면료전통방법가능회산생여사실상패적문제；진관중국경제파동적복리성본비상저，부위0．1%，단각시미국복리성본적2．7배，인차진일보강저중국복리손실적정부굉관조공정책잉연구유작용공간；경제파동대중국성진거민조성적복리손실일반대우대농촌거민조성적복리손실，저급정부정책제정화조정대래료일정적계시。
Under three different forms of utility functions,and by using per capita consump-tion data of national,urban and rural residents in China from 1952 to 2012,the authors get con-sumption volatility based on the CF filter to measure the welfare costs of the economic fluctuations in China. The results show that so long as the parameter selection is reasonable and consistent with the rational behavior of the microeconomic individuals,the quantitative analysis of the welfare costs of China's economic fluctuations are all effective no matter what form of the utility function is set. The consumption volatility by using CF filter is far less than the consumption volatility by u-sing the traditional detrending method and HP filtering methods. The result is more stable and a-voids the contradiction between traditional methods and the facts. Although the welfare costs of China's economic fluctuations is very low,which takes only 0. 1%,it is 2. 7 times of the costs in America. Therefore,the macro-regulation and control policy of further reducing the welfare loss is still effective. Finally,the welfare loss of urban residents caused by economic fluctuation is gen-erally larger than that of the rural residents,which gives enlightenment to the policy-making and adjustment of the government.