CAJ | 학술논문

文章创建了一个新的贸易理论模型。理论层面，基于比例效用理论视角，类比微观消费者交换机制推导新的宏观贸易均衡模型，定性分析显示新的贸易模型能够包容现有主流贸易理论；实证层面，利用亚太经济合作组织成员1991～2009年宏观数据，通过面板SUR模型对新贸易模型进行检验，结果显示新贸易模型成立；应用层面，基于新贸易模型定量测算亚太经合组织成员贸易效用水平、各成员均衡状态偏离度、各成员贸易动机指数、各成员进口与GDP边际关系。最后得出结论：中国贸易效用年增长率最高，达6%；美国与日本参与贸易的动机最强，中国贸易动机提升最快；亚太经济合作组织成员进口与GDP关系普遍呈现由负相关向正相关转变的趋势。
문장창건료일개신적무역이론모형。이론층면，기우비례효용이론시각，류비미관소비자교환궤제추도신적굉관무역균형모형，정성분석현시신적무역모형능구포용현유주류무역이론；실증층면，이용아태경제합작조직성원1991～2009년굉관수거，통과면판SUR모형대신무역모형진행검험，결과현시신무역모형성립；응용층면，기우신무역모형정량측산아태경합조직성원무역효용수평、각성원균형상태편리도、각성원무역동궤지수、각성원진구여GDP변제관계。최후득출결론：중국무역효용년증장솔최고，체6%；미국여일본삼여무역적동궤최강，중국무역동궤제승최쾌；아태경제합작조직성원진구여GDP관계보편정현유부상관향정상관전변적추세。
The paper deduces a new trade model based on ratio utility theory. Theoretically,a new macro -equilibrium trade model is established by borrowing consumer ’s micro -exchange mechanism. Qualitative analyses demonstrate that the new trade model is compatible with the ma-instream trade theories. Empirical test shows that the new model is tenable by using the data of APEC members from 1991 to 2009 and the panel SUR model. There are four basic applications of the new model for APEC members: trade utility estimation,measurement of equilibrium deviation degree,assessment of trade motivation index,calculation of marginal relation between import and GDP. The main conclusions are: the highest annual increase rate of China’s trade utility is 6%;America and Japan have the strongest motivation of trade,while the trade motivation of China has the fastest increase; the relation between import and GDP of APEC members has been changing from negative correlation to positive correlation.