CAJ | 학술논문

基于过程的作物模型使用大量的品种和土壤参数来模拟作物生长和土壤水分变化。对于新的作物品种或新的环境，这些参数往往需要重新率定，然而许多参数难以通过实测获得。敏感性分析（sensitivity analysis，SA）可以量化模型输入参数对模型输出的影响，通过筛选出敏感性较大的参数进行率定，而把敏感性较小的参数设为固定值，可以极大简化参数率定过程，提高工作效率和模型模拟精度。为了给DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton模型应用于新疆地区进行棉花灌溉制度优化提供本地化的模型参数，对该模型进行了敏感性分析和不确定性分析。该文依据新疆石河子的棉花大田试验资料，应用Morris法和扩展傅里叶幅度敏感性检验（extend Fourier amplitude sensitivity test，EFAST）法对DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton 模型3个灌水处理（60%ETC、80%ETC 和100%ETC ， ETC 为作物蒸发蒸腾量 crop evapotranspiration）下6个输出结果（初花天数、成熟天数、籽棉产量、地上干物质量、最大叶面积指数和蒸发蒸腾量）对于品种和土壤参数进行敏感性分析，并比较了2种方法的相关关系，最后对EFAST法的输出结果进行不确定性分析。相关分析结果显示，对于地上干物质量和最大叶面积指数，Morris法和EFAST法相关性介于0.87～0.93，对于模型结果成熟天数、籽棉产量和蒸发蒸腾量，2种方法相关性介于0.66～0.81。敏感性分析和不确定性分析结果显示，模型模拟灌水处理对初花天数无明显差异，且模拟初花天数和最大叶面积指数存在参数敏感性过于单一现象。模型参数敏感性随土层而不同：对于成熟天数，＞40～80 cm土壤参数的敏感性更强；对于地上干物质量和蒸发蒸腾量，＞80～120 cm土壤参数的敏感性更强，这可能是由于该地区气候干旱，下层土壤水分充足程度直接影响作物受到水分胁迫的程度，进而影响作物生长发育和蒸发蒸腾量。模型输出结果最大叶面积指数和蒸发蒸腾量存在一定程度的高估。该研究可提高CROPGRO-Cotton模型在新疆地区的模拟效率和模拟精度。基于過程的作物模型使用大量的品種和土壤參數來模擬作物生長和土壤水分變化。對于新的作物品種或新的環境，這些參數往往需要重新率定，然而許多參數難以通過實測穫得。敏感性分析（sensitivity analysis，SA）可以量化模型輸入參數對模型輸齣的影響，通過篩選齣敏感性較大的參數進行率定，而把敏感性較小的參數設為固定值，可以極大簡化參數率定過程，提高工作效率和模型模擬精度。為瞭給DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton模型應用于新疆地區進行棉花灌溉製度優化提供本地化的模型參數，對該模型進行瞭敏感性分析和不確定性分析。該文依據新疆石河子的棉花大田試驗資料，應用Morris法和擴展傅裏葉幅度敏感性檢驗（extend Fourier amplitude sensitivity test，EFAST）法對DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton 模型3箇灌水處理（60%ETC、80%ETC 和100%ETC ， ETC 為作物蒸髮蒸騰量 crop evapotranspiration）下6箇輸齣結果（初花天數、成熟天數、籽棉產量、地上榦物質量、最大葉麵積指數和蒸髮蒸騰量）對于品種和土壤參數進行敏感性分析，併比較瞭2種方法的相關關繫，最後對EFAST法的輸齣結果進行不確定性分析。相關分析結果顯示，對于地上榦物質量和最大葉麵積指數，Morris法和EFAST法相關性介于0.87～0.93，對于模型結果成熟天數、籽棉產量和蒸髮蒸騰量，2種方法相關性介于0.66～0.81。敏感性分析和不確定性分析結果顯示，模型模擬灌水處理對初花天數無明顯差異，且模擬初花天數和最大葉麵積指數存在參數敏感性過于單一現象。模型參數敏感性隨土層而不同：對于成熟天數，＞40～80 cm土壤參數的敏感性更彊；對于地上榦物質量和蒸髮蒸騰量，＞80～120 cm土壤參數的敏感性更彊，這可能是由于該地區氣候榦旱，下層土壤水分充足程度直接影響作物受到水分脅迫的程度，進而影響作物生長髮育和蒸髮蒸騰量。模型輸齣結果最大葉麵積指數和蒸髮蒸騰量存在一定程度的高估。該研究可提高CROPGRO-Cotton模型在新疆地區的模擬效率和模擬精度。
기우과정적작물모형사용대량적품충화토양삼수래모의작물생장화토양수분변화。대우신적작물품충혹신적배경，저사삼수왕왕수요중신솔정，연이허다삼수난이통과실측획득。민감성분석（sensitivity analysis，SA）가이양화모형수입삼수대모형수출적영향，통과사선출민감성교대적삼수진행솔정，이파민감성교소적삼수설위고정치，가이겁대간화삼수솔정과정，제고공작효솔화모형모의정도。위료급DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton모형응용우신강지구진행면화관개제도우화제공본지화적모형삼수，대해모형진행료민감성분석화불학정성분석。해문의거신강석하자적면화대전시험자료，응용Morris법화확전부리협폭도민감성검험（extend Fourier amplitude sensitivity test，EFAST）법대DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton 모형3개관수처리（60%ETC、80%ETC 화100%ETC ， ETC 위작물증발증등량 crop evapotranspiration）하6개수출결과（초화천수、성숙천수、자면산량、지상간물질량、최대협면적지수화증발증등량）대우품충화토양삼수진행민감성분석，병비교료2충방법적상관관계，최후대EFAST법적수출결과진행불학정성분석。상관분석결과현시，대우지상간물질량화최대협면적지수，Morris법화EFAST법상관성개우0.87～0.93，대우모형결과성숙천수、자면산량화증발증등량，2충방법상관성개우0.66～0.81。민감성분석화불학정성분석결과현시，모형모의관수처리대초화천수무명현차이，차모의초화천수화최대협면적지수존재삼수민감성과우단일현상。모형삼수민감성수토층이불동：대우성숙천수，＞40～80 cm토양삼수적민감성경강；대우지상간물질량화증발증등량，＞80～120 cm토양삼수적민감성경강，저가능시유우해지구기후간한，하층토양수분충족정도직접영향작물수도수분협박적정도，진이영향작물생장발육화증발증등량。모형수출결과최대협면적지수화증발증등량존재일정정도적고고。해연구가제고CROPGRO-Cotton모형재신강지구적모의효솔화모의정도。
Process-based crop models use a large number of variety and soil parameters to simulate dynamic changes of crop growth and soil moisture. Many of the parameters are difficult to measure directly for different crop varieties or environments, recalibrations are often needed. Determining the importance of specific parameters to the model outputs is helpful to simplify the crop model calibrations. Sensitivity analysis (SA) can quantify the impact of input parameters on the model outputs and is helpful for model parameterizations. This study aimed to obtain model parameters of DSSAT-CROPGRO-Cotton model for irrigation schedule optimization of cotton in Xinjiang, China through sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Based on the field cotton experiments in Shihezi Region of Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, the Morris method and extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (EFAST) method were applied to analyze the sensitivity of six outputs of the CROPGRO-Cotton model to the variety and soil parameters at three irrigation levels. The model outputs included days of initial flowering and maturing, seed cotton yield, aboveground dry biomass, maximum leaf area index and evapotranspiration. In addition, the correlation between the two methods was analyzed and the uncertainty analysis was conducted for the model outputs from the EFAST method. Results showed that EFAST method was better than Morris method in sensitivity test. The Spearman rank correlation analysis showed that the correlation coefficient was between 0.87 and 0.93 for the aboveground dry biomass and maximum leaf area index, and between 0.66 and 0.81 for the days of maturing, seed cotton yield and evapotranspiration. The numbers of sensitive parameters was smaller from Morris method than EFAST method, indicating that Morris method may oversimplify sensitivity problem. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that irrigation levels had no significant effects on the days of initial flowering and a simplistic parameter sensitivity issue existed for simulation of the days of initial flowering and maximum leaf area index. Soil parameters in different soil layers had different effects on the model outputs. The days of maturing were more sensitive to the soil parameters in soil layer of 40-80 cm, but the aboveground dry biomass and evapotranspiration were more sensitive to the soil parameters in soil layer of 80-120 cm. The maximum leaf area index and evapotranspiration were both overestimated to a certain extent, it was necessary to make an improvement so as to enhance the simulation accuracy before this model could be applied in Xinjiang. The most sensitive parameters for cotton mature days simulation was time between plant emergence and flower appearance (EMFL), time between the first flower and first seed (FLSD) and time between the first seed and physiological maturity (SDPM). The most sensitive parameters for seed cotton yield simulation was maximum fraction of daily growth that was partitioned to seed and shell (XFRT) and the most sensitive parameters for aboveground dry mass are drainage rate (SLDR) and field capacity in soil layer from 80 to 120 cm (SDUL3). The most sensitive parameters for evapotranspiration simulation was SDUL3. The parameter of seed filling duration for pod cohort at standard growth conditions (SFDUR) was not sensitive for all outputs and thus could be set as constant values. Surface albedo (SALB), runoff curve number (SLRO) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (SSKS1) were only sensitive to mature days. The results above would help to improve simulation efficiency and precision of CROPGRO-Cotton model in Xinjiang region.