CAJ | 학술논문

运用VAR脉冲响应函数，实证考量1992—2013年政府财政对农民工市民化的动态影响效应。结果表明：城镇固定资产给农民工市民化带来双向冲击，且冲击的正向效应较为显著。社会保障对农民工市民化促进作用逐步减弱。科教文卫支出对农民工市民化进程具有较大影响力，短期对农民工市民化有负向冲击效应，但长期看效果显著，正向冲击效应持续时间长且强度大。我国的财政分权度对市民化虽然存在正向冲击，但正向作用并不显著。政府只有明确自身承担的责任，建立财政保障机制和推进制度改革，才能解决好农民工市民化问题。
운용VAR맥충향응함수，실증고량1992—2013년정부재정대농민공시민화적동태영향효응。결과표명：성진고정자산급농민공시민화대래쌍향충격，차충격적정향효응교위현저。사회보장대농민공시민화촉진작용축보감약。과교문위지출대농민공시민화진정구유교대영향력，단기대농민공시민화유부향충격효응，단장기간효과현저，정향충격효응지속시간장차강도대。아국적재정분권도대시민화수연존재정향충격，단정향작용병불현저。정부지유명학자신승담적책임，건립재정보장궤제화추진제도개혁，재능해결호농민공시민화문제。
Through VAR impulse response function, this paper tries to make empirical considerations using government finance during 1992—2013 on the dynamic effect of urbanization of migrant workers. The results show that urban fixed assets bring bidirection-al impact to the urbanization of migrant workers, but the positive effect is more significant. The positive effect of social security on ur-banization of migrant workers weakens gradually. The science-education-culture-health expenditure has positive and durable influence on the urbanization of rural migrant workers. It has negative impact in the short-term but positive impact in the long-term. Despite fis-cal decentralization of our country has positive impact on urbanization of rural migrant workers, the positive effect is not significant. The government must define its own responsibilities, establish the financial security mechanism and promote the reform of the system in or-der to solve the problem of urbanization of migrant workers.