CAJ | 학술논문

结合中国国情构建基于凯恩斯宏观闭合的税收CGE模型，并设置四种模拟方案以测算不同增值税扩围改革方案对中国产业结构的影响。研究结果表明：全面实行增值税扩围改革，能够带动宏观经济发展，可以作为产业结构调整的有力工具；对全行业实行统一税率也有利于产业结构的优化；税率选择不宜过高和过低。建议进一步加快增值税改革，尽可能地扩大增值税的征收范围，并对各行业征收统一的适中税率，以更好地发挥产业结构对经济增长的调节作用。
결합중국국정구건기우개은사굉관폐합적세수CGE모형，병설치사충모의방안이측산불동증치세확위개혁방안대중국산업결구적영향。연구결과표명：전면실행증치세확위개혁，능구대동굉관경제발전，가이작위산업결구조정적유력공구；대전행업실행통일세솔야유리우산업결구적우화；세솔선택불의과고화과저。건의진일보가쾌증치세개혁，진가능지확대증치세적정수범위，병대각행업정수통일적괄중세솔，이경호지발휘산업결구대경제증장적조절작용。
According to China’s national conditions,the paper constructs a tax CGE model based on keynesian macro closure and sets up four kinds of simulation projects. Study indicates that comprehensive im-plement of VAT expansion reform can promote the development of macro economy ,and can be used as a pow-erful tool for industrial structure’s adjustment. Meanwhile,unified rate after expanding around the whole indus-try is more advantageous to the optimization of industrial structure,and the choice of tax rate should be moder-ate. In order to promote the positive effect of industrial structure on economic growth,VAT expansion should be further implemented,and the moderate and unified tax rates in various industries should be chosen.