CAJ | 학술논문

为模拟气候变化对夏玉米发育期影响，本文将河南省划分为4个夏玉米主栽区，分区进行主栽品种遗传参数调试验证，确定各区域品种平均遗传参数。将未来气候变化情景(A2和B2)下，2020s、2050s和2080s各时段的温度和降水增量加上基准值，模拟未来气候变化对河南省夏玉米发育期的影响。模型调参验证结果表明：各区域品种遗传参数存在一定差异，豫西地区当前种植品种播种-开花所需积温高于其它地区，而豫北和豫东当前种植品种开花-成熟所需积温高于其它地区；各区开花期调参和验证误差RMSE为2～4d，相对误差NRMSE均小于10%；各区域成熟期调参误差RMSE均小于4d，验证误差RMSE为3～7d，除豫西区外，各区域调参及验证期间的成熟期相对误差NRMSE均小于10%。表明CERES-Maize模型对河南省各区域夏玉米发育期模拟精度均较高。未来气候变化影响模拟结果表明：A2和B2情景下，夏玉米营养生长期平均缩短4.7d和3.1d，全生育期平均缩短12.9d和8.6d。夏玉米生育期缩短日数与各时段增温幅度趋势一致，全省4个区域中豫西区生育期日数缩短最多。
위모의기후변화대하옥미발육기영향，본문장하남성화분위4개하옥미주재구，분구진행주재품충유전삼수조시험증，학정각구역품충평균유전삼수。장미래기후변화정경(A2화B2)하，2020s、2050s화2080s각시단적온도화강수증량가상기준치，모의미래기후변화대하남성하옥미발육기적영향。모형조삼험증결과표명：각구역품충유전삼수존재일정차이，예서지구당전충식품충파충-개화소수적온고우기타지구，이예북화예동당전충식품충개화-성숙소수적온고우기타지구；각구개화기조삼화험증오차RMSE위2～4d，상대오차NRMSE균소우10%；각구역성숙기조삼오차RMSE균소우4d，험증오차RMSE위3～7d，제예서구외，각구역조삼급험증기간적성숙기상대오차NRMSE균소우10%。표명CERES-Maize모형대하남성각구역하옥미발육기모의정도균교고。미래기후변화영향모의결과표명：A2화B2정경하，하옥미영양생장기평균축단4.7d화3.1d，전생육기평균축단12.9d화8.6d。하옥미생육기축단일수여각시단증온폭도추세일치，전성4개구역중예서구생육기일수축단최다。
The study aimed to model the impacts of climate change on maize phenology. Henan province was divided into four agro-climatic zones and the genetic parameters of representative maize varieties in each zone were determined by calibrate and validate CERES-Maize model. Thereafter, the impact of future climate change on maize phenology was modeled based on future climate change scenarios (A2 and B2) for 2020s, 2050s and 2080s by adding the temperature and precipitation increments simulated by regional climate model (PRECIS) to the baseline (1961-1990). The study results showed that there were large spatial differences between genetic parameters of representative maize varieties in four zones. Required thermal time from sowing to flowering of maize varieties in western Henan was higher than other zones. However, required thermal time from flowering to maturity of maize varieties in northern and eastern Henan was higher than other two zones. Days from sowing to flowering were accurately simulated with RMSE <4.0d and NRMSE <10% for both the calibration and validation periods. RMSE between simulated and observed maturing date was lower than 4d for calibration period and 3-7d for validation period. NRMSE between simulated and observed maturing date was lower than 10% in all the zones except for western Henan. Simulated vegetative growth period and whole growth period of summer maize shortened by 4.7d and 12.9d on average under A2 scenario, and 3.1d and 8.6d on average under B2 scenario, respectively. The decrease in the length of maize growing period was in accordance with the increase in growing period temperature in different regions in Henan province, with the longest decrease in western Henan.