中国农业气象
中國農業氣象
중국농업기상
AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
2015年
4期
497-505
,共9页
顾治家%白致威%段兴武%丁剑宏%冯德泰%师小宁%韩絮
顧治傢%白緻威%段興武%丁劍宏%馮德泰%師小寧%韓絮
고치가%백치위%단흥무%정검굉%풍덕태%사소저%한서
气候变化%气候产量%冗余分析(RDA)%环境因子%云南
氣候變化%氣候產量%冗餘分析(RDA)%環境因子%雲南
기후변화%기후산량%용여분석(RDA)%배경인자%운남
Climate change%Climatic yield%Redundancy analysis%Environmental factors%Yunnan Province
高原山区土地资源短缺、人地矛盾突出，应对气候变化的能力尤为脆弱，探讨高原山区环境因子对粮食气候产量的影响，可为山区土地资源的合理利用和保护提供科学依据。本文利用云南省各县1985-2012年平均粮食单产数据，采用生物模型Logistic 函数模拟趋势产量，以计算气候产量。提取同时期气候、地形、土壤等17个环境因子，利用相关分析、冗余分析（Redundancy analysis，RDA）等统计分析方法探究环境因子对山区气候产量的定量影响。结果表明：研究区多年平均气候产量为-0.15～-0.01t·hm?2，且研究时段内呈降低趋势；气候产量与土壤全钾含量呈极显著负相关，与坡度、坡向呈极显著正相关，与其它14个环境因子无显著相关性。RDA分析结果表明，坡度、坡向、土壤碳氮比、气温、土壤pH、土壤全钾含量6个环境变量为最小解释变量组合。坡度是影响山区粮食生产的关键性环境因子之一，与粮食实际产量呈负相关，而与气候产量呈正相关。坡度单因子可解释44.62%的粮食实际产量、26.29%气候产量的变化。从研究结果看，气候产量相对较高的地区通过坡改梯、土壤培肥等手段提高粮食单产是气候变化前提下维持区域粮食生产安全的有效途径。
高原山區土地資源短缺、人地矛盾突齣，應對氣候變化的能力尤為脆弱，探討高原山區環境因子對糧食氣候產量的影響，可為山區土地資源的閤理利用和保護提供科學依據。本文利用雲南省各縣1985-2012年平均糧食單產數據，採用生物模型Logistic 函數模擬趨勢產量，以計算氣候產量。提取同時期氣候、地形、土壤等17箇環境因子，利用相關分析、冗餘分析（Redundancy analysis，RDA）等統計分析方法探究環境因子對山區氣候產量的定量影響。結果錶明：研究區多年平均氣候產量為-0.15～-0.01t·hm?2，且研究時段內呈降低趨勢；氣候產量與土壤全鉀含量呈極顯著負相關，與坡度、坡嚮呈極顯著正相關，與其它14箇環境因子無顯著相關性。RDA分析結果錶明，坡度、坡嚮、土壤碳氮比、氣溫、土壤pH、土壤全鉀含量6箇環境變量為最小解釋變量組閤。坡度是影響山區糧食生產的關鍵性環境因子之一，與糧食實際產量呈負相關，而與氣候產量呈正相關。坡度單因子可解釋44.62%的糧食實際產量、26.29%氣候產量的變化。從研究結果看，氣候產量相對較高的地區通過坡改梯、土壤培肥等手段提高糧食單產是氣候變化前提下維持區域糧食生產安全的有效途徑。
고원산구토지자원단결、인지모순돌출，응대기후변화적능력우위취약，탐토고원산구배경인자대양식기후산량적영향，가위산구토지자원적합리이용화보호제공과학의거。본문이용운남성각현1985-2012년평균양식단산수거，채용생물모형Logistic 함수모의추세산량，이계산기후산량。제취동시기기후、지형、토양등17개배경인자，이용상관분석、용여분석（Redundancy analysis，RDA）등통계분석방법탐구배경인자대산구기후산량적정량영향。결과표명：연구구다년평균기후산량위-0.15～-0.01t·hm?2，차연구시단내정강저추세；기후산량여토양전갑함량정겁현저부상관，여파도、파향정겁현저정상관，여기타14개배경인자무현저상관성。RDA분석결과표명，파도、파향、토양탄담비、기온、토양pH、토양전갑함량6개배경변량위최소해석변량조합。파도시영향산구양식생산적관건성배경인자지일，여양식실제산량정부상관，이여기후산량정정상관。파도단인자가해석44.62%적양식실제산량、26.29%기후산량적변화。종연구결과간，기후산량상대교고적지구통과파개제、토양배비등수단제고양식단산시기후변화전제하유지구역양식생산안전적유효도경。
The shortage of agricultural land resources in mountainous area leads to an inevitable conflict between human and land, which responses particularly for the vulnerability of crop yield in the mountainous area under the climate change conditions. To study the effects of environmental factors on climatic yield may provide a scientific basis for the rational utilization and protection of the land resources in mountainous area. A case study was focused in the Yunnan Province in this paper, grain yield per unit area of 122 counties from the year 1985 to 2012 were collected, biological simulation model was used to simulate the trend of yield and calculate climatic yield, seventeen environmental factors were extracted from each country during the same period. Correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA) were used to analyze the quantitative impact of environmental factors on climatic grain yield. The results showed that the unit area climatic yield varied between-0.15 and-0.01t·ha?1with a reduction tendency with the increasing of time in the study area. A significantly negative correlation was found between the soil total potassium, while a significant positive correlation between slope, aspect and climatic yield. There was no statistically significant correlation between climatic yield and other 14 environmental factors. Redundancy analysis showed that slope, aspect, soil carbon and nitrogen ratio, temperature, soil pH and TK were the minimum variables combination which could explain 44.6% variation of grain yield. Slope gradient was one of the most important environmental influential factors, which could explain 44.62% of grain actual yield and 26.29% climatic yield per unit area’s variation. In higher climatic yield region by transforming slope into terrace, improving soil fertility and other means to increase grain yield is an effective way to protect the regional grain production safety under the premise of climate change.
