中国农业气象
中國農業氣象
중국농업기상
AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY
2015年
4期
465-471
,共7页
冬小麦%有效积温%累积速率%发育期模型
鼕小麥%有效積溫%纍積速率%髮育期模型
동소맥%유효적온%루적속솔%발육기모형
Winter wheat%Effective accumulated temperature%Accumulated rate%Development period model
冬小麦发育期预报是农业气象服务的主要内容之一。本文以光、温、水气象因子为基础，以位于河北省中南部冬麦区的南宫站为例，选取1991-2010年冬小麦全生育期农业气象观测数据和冬小麦生育期资料，分析光、温、水气象因子累积速率与冬小麦发育速率的相关性，建立各生育阶段冬小麦发育速率预测模型。结果表明：在研究区，光照和水分因子不是冬小麦发育速率的限制条件，不作为发育期预测模型的因子；温度因子是影响冬小麦发育速率的主导因子，返青至各阶段的有效积温累积速率与对应的发育速率的相关系数，较单一生育阶段的相关系数显著提高（P＜0.05），冬前有效积温与返青-拔节、返青-抽穗阶段的发育速率显著相关（P＜0.05）；以相关显著的温度因子为自变量建立的4个阶段发育速率预测模型，模拟最大绝对误差为7d，返青-拔节平均绝对误差为3d，返青-抽穗为2.8d，返青-乳熟3.3d，返青-成熟2.2d，模型模拟精度较高，可以满足农业气象业务服务的需求。
鼕小麥髮育期預報是農業氣象服務的主要內容之一。本文以光、溫、水氣象因子為基礎，以位于河北省中南部鼕麥區的南宮站為例，選取1991-2010年鼕小麥全生育期農業氣象觀測數據和鼕小麥生育期資料，分析光、溫、水氣象因子纍積速率與鼕小麥髮育速率的相關性，建立各生育階段鼕小麥髮育速率預測模型。結果錶明：在研究區，光照和水分因子不是鼕小麥髮育速率的限製條件，不作為髮育期預測模型的因子；溫度因子是影響鼕小麥髮育速率的主導因子，返青至各階段的有效積溫纍積速率與對應的髮育速率的相關繫數，較單一生育階段的相關繫數顯著提高（P＜0.05），鼕前有效積溫與返青-拔節、返青-抽穗階段的髮育速率顯著相關（P＜0.05）；以相關顯著的溫度因子為自變量建立的4箇階段髮育速率預測模型，模擬最大絕對誤差為7d，返青-拔節平均絕對誤差為3d，返青-抽穗為2.8d，返青-乳熟3.3d，返青-成熟2.2d，模型模擬精度較高，可以滿足農業氣象業務服務的需求。
동소맥발육기예보시농업기상복무적주요내용지일。본문이광、온、수기상인자위기출，이위우하북성중남부동맥구적남궁참위례，선취1991-2010년동소맥전생육기농업기상관측수거화동소맥생육기자료，분석광、온、수기상인자루적속솔여동소맥발육속솔적상관성，건립각생육계단동소맥발육속솔예측모형。결과표명：재연구구，광조화수분인자불시동소맥발육속솔적한제조건，불작위발육기예측모형적인자；온도인자시영향동소맥발육속솔적주도인자，반청지각계단적유효적온루적속솔여대응적발육속솔적상관계수，교단일생육계단적상관계수현저제고（P＜0.05），동전유효적온여반청-발절、반청-추수계단적발육속솔현저상관（P＜0.05）；이상관현저적온도인자위자변량건립적4개계단발육속솔예측모형，모의최대절대오차위7d，반청-발절평균절대오차위3d，반청-추수위2.8d，반청-유숙3.3d，반청-성숙2.2d，모형모의정도교고，가이만족농업기상업무복무적수구。
The forecast for winter wheat development stages is one of the main contents for agro-meteorological services. The correlation of the accumulation rate of meteorological factors including sunshine hours, temperature, water and winter wheat growth rate during 1991-2010 at Nangong station, which is located in south central of Hebei province, was analyzed, and winter wheat growth rate forecasting models for different development stages were established. The results showed that sunshine hours and moisture were not the limited factors of winter wheat growth rate in this region, but temperature was a dominant factor affecting the rate of winter wheat development. The correlation coefficient between effective accumulated rate and the growth rate of turn-green stage to other stages was improved significantly than that of any single stage (P<0.05). There were significant correlations between the effective accumulated temperature before winter and the growth rate of turn-green to heading stage (P<0.05). The model simulated results of maximum absolute error of the development rate forecast for four stages of winter wheat based on temperature was 7 days, and the mean absolute error was 3 days, 2.8 days, 3.3 days, 2.2 days from turn-green to jointing stage, turn-green to heading stage, turn-green to milk-ripe stage, and turn-green to maturity stage, respectively. The model could meet the needs of agro-meteorological operational services.
