CAJ | 학술논문

根据江西省1971-2010年81个国家气象站逐日温度资料，采用线性分析、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法，探讨了近40年来江西省夏季高温日数的时间、空间变化特征及其周期性。结果表明，近40年高温日数在21世纪初明显增多，高温日数增加最明显的是赣州。全省有3个高温多发区，主要分布在赣东北、抚州、吉安等地，以横峰为中心的赣东北最为严重。高温(≥35℃)及强高温(≥37℃)日数具有12-13年和22年左右2个显著年代际振荡周期，极端高温(≥40℃)日数周期不明显。 Mann-Kendall检验表明江西省夏季高温日数呈现“减少-增加”趋势，强高温日数呈现“增加-减少-增加”趋势，而极端高温日数无明显变化趋势，各级高温的突变年份没有明显的界限。
근거강서성1971-2010년81개국가기상참축일온도자료，채용선성분석、소파분석、Mann-Kendall검험등방법，탐토료근40년래강서성하계고온일수적시간、공간변화특정급기주기성。결과표명，근40년고온일수재21세기초명현증다，고온일수증가최명현적시공주。전성유3개고온다발구，주요분포재공동북、무주、길안등지，이횡봉위중심적공동북최위엄중。고온(≥35℃)급강고온(≥37℃)일수구유12-13년화22년좌우2개현저년대제진탕주기，겁단고온(≥40℃)일수주기불명현。 Mann-Kendall검험표명강서성하계고온일수정현“감소-증가”추세，강고온일수정현“증가-감소-증가”추세，이겁단고온일수무명현변화추세，각급고온적돌변년빈몰유명현적계한。
Based on high temperature data of 81 meteorological observation stations in Jiangxi prov-ince from 1971 to 2010,using linear analysis, wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall examination method, discusses the high temperature days changes of time,space and the periodicity in the recent 40 years in the summer in jiangxi province. The results show that the high temperature days significantly in-creased in recent 40 years in 00 s,and the most obvious is ganzhou. The province has three high in-cidence,mainly distributed in the northeast of Jiangxi,Fuzhou and JiAn,in HengFeng as the center area in northeast jiangxi is most serious. High temperature (≥35 ℃) and strong high temperature (≥37 ℃) days have two significant decadal oscillation period with 12 -13 and 22 years,but ex-treme high temperature days cycle is not obvious. Mann-Kendall test show that the summer high tem-perature days in jiangxi province showed a trend of "reducing-increasing",strong high temperature days showed a trend of"increasing-reducing-increasing",and extreme high temperature days with no obvious change trend,various high temperature mutations in the years no obvious boundaries.