CAJ | 학술논문

由于旱灾的发生是自然、社会等多种影响因素共同作用的结果，旱灾数据往往呈现出复杂性和非线性。文中根据旱灾数据的特点，以1974年至2004年我国旱灾成灾面积为例，运用分形理论对其进行分析。首先，使用R/S法对旱灾成灾面积时间序列的分形特征进行判别，结果显示该时间序列具有良好的分形特征；然后利用分形插值方法实现了对历史数据的插值拟合；最后根据建立的分形插值预测模型，对2005年的旱灾成灾面积进行预测。实验结果表明，拟合和预测的结果与实际情况都较为接近。因此，利用分形插值方法来分析旱灾数据是合理的。
유우한재적발생시자연、사회등다충영향인소공동작용적결과，한재수거왕왕정현출복잡성화비선성。문중근거한재수거적특점，이1974년지2004년아국한재성재면적위례，운용분형이론대기진행분석。수선，사용R/S법대한재성재면적시간서렬적분형특정진행판별，결과현시해시간서렬구유량호적분형특정；연후이용분형삽치방법실현료대역사수거적삽치의합；최후근거건립적분형삽치예측모형，대2005년적한재성재면적진행예측。실험결과표명，의합화예측적결과여실제정황도교위접근。인차，이용분형삽치방법래분석한재수거시합리적。
The occurrence of drought is the result of combined action which caused by natural,social and other factors,so the drought data often presents complexity and nonlinear. According to the characteristics of drought data,taking the data of Chinese drought disaster area that occurs in 1974 to 2004 as an example,use the fractal theory to analyze. Firstly,apply the R/S analysis method to determine the fractal characteristics of drought disaster area time series,the results show that this time series has good fractal characteristics. Then,use fractal interpolation method to achieve the historical data interpolation fitting. Finally,apply the fractal interpolation prediction model which is es-tablished to forecast the drought disaster area in 2005. Experimental results show that the fitting and predictive results are relatively close to the actual situation. Therefore,using the fractal interpolation method to analyze the drought data is reasonable.