CAJ | 학술논문

气候敏感度是度量温室气体浓度升高和全球升温幅度关系的重要指标，当前气候模拟和气候预估中的很多不确定性问题，都直接和气候敏感度有关。气候敏感度的大小也决定着预估的气候变暖幅度的大小，直接影响到温室气体减排政策的制订。在简要回顾气候敏感度概念的提出和研究历史基础上，着眼于气候反馈分析，介绍了气候敏感度与辐射强迫和反馈过程的关系，总结了气候系统主要的反馈过程；根据大气层顶的能量平衡关系，利用 CMIP5多模式结果介绍了平衡态气候敏感度和瞬态气候响应（包括累积碳排放的瞬态气候响应）的估算原理和方法，总结了气候敏感度不确定性的来源，并以“2℃阈值”问题为例，介绍了气候敏感度对预估结果不确定性的影响。随着观测资料的积累和气候模式的发展，继续减少气候敏感度的不确定性、估算包含碳循环的敏感度、利用地球系统模式规划最优碳排放路径是未来本领域主要的研究方向。
기후민감도시도량온실기체농도승고화전구승온폭도관계적중요지표，당전기후모의화기후예고중적흔다불학정성문제，도직접화기후민감도유관。기후민감도적대소야결정착예고적기후변난폭도적대소，직접영향도온실기체감배정책적제정。재간요회고기후민감도개념적제출화연구역사기출상，착안우기후반궤분석，개소료기후민감도여복사강박화반궤과정적관계，총결료기후계통주요적반궤과정；근거대기층정적능량평형관계，이용 CMIP5다모식결과개소료평형태기후민감도화순태기후향응（포괄루적탄배방적순태기후향응）적고산원리화방법，총결료기후민감도불학정성적래원，병이“2℃역치”문제위례，개소료기후민감도대예고결과불학정성적영향。수착관측자료적적루화기후모식적발전，계속감소기후민감도적불학정성、고산포함탄순배적민감도、이용지구계통모식규화최우탄배방로경시미래본영역주요적연구방향。
The climate sensitivity is an important index that measures the relationship between the increase of greenhouse gasses and the magnitude of global warming.Uncertainties in the climate change projection and climate modeling are mostly related to the climate sensitivity.The climate sensitivities of coupled climate models determine the magnitudes of the projected global war-ming.In this paper,the authors have thoroughly reviewed the studies of climate sensitivities,and discussed the issues related to climate feedback processes,the methods used in estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)and the transient cli-mate response (TCR),including the TCR to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE).After presenting a summary of the sources that affect the uncertainty of climate sensitivity,the impact of climate sensitivity on climate change projection is discussed by addressing the uncertainties in the 2°C warming issue.Challenges that call for further researches are also discussed.