CAJ | 학술논문

选取1996-2012年间的省级面板数据，根据城镇化发展质量高低将全国29省市划分为三个组别，利用STIRPAT模型考察了不同城镇化发展质量阶段碳排放影响因素的差异。结果表明：就全国整体而言，人均可支配收入是影响碳排放的最主要因素；随着城镇化质量的不断提高，城镇化对碳排放的驱动作用逐渐减弱。在城镇化发展质量不同的情景下，城镇化质量高和城镇化质量中等的地区，人均可支配收入对碳排放的驱动作用最为显著；城镇化质量低的地区，城镇化是影响碳排放的最主要原因。在此研究结论的基础上，根据城镇化发展质量的不同，提出相应的节能减排政策。
선취1996-2012년간적성급면판수거，근거성진화발전질량고저장전국29성시화분위삼개조별，이용STIRPAT모형고찰료불동성진화발전질량계단탄배방영향인소적차이。결과표명：취전국정체이언，인균가지배수입시영향탄배방적최주요인소；수착성진화질량적불단제고，성진화대탄배방적구동작용축점감약。재성진화발전질량불동적정경하，성진화질량고화성진화질량중등적지구，인균가지배수입대탄배방적구동작용최위현저；성진화질량저적지구，성진화시영향탄배방적최주요원인。재차연구결론적기출상，근거성진화발전질량적불동，제출상응적절능감배정책。
Panel data of 1996-2012 are selected and 29 provinces and municipalities are divided into three categories based on their qualities of urbanization. The STIRPAT model is used for the analysis of different factors affecting carbon emissions at different stages of urbanization. The result shows that for the country as a whole, the per capita disposable income is the main factor affecting carbon emissions;with the constant im-provement of the quality of urbanization, the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions gradually weakens. In the scenarios of high and medium qualities of urbanization, per capita disposable income effects carbon emissions significantly, while in regions with lower quality of urbanization, urbanization is the main factor af-fecting carbon emissions. On the basis of this research, it is suggested that corresponding policies should be made with reference to the quality of urbanization to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.