人民长江
人民長江
인민장강
YANGTZE RIVER
2015年
15期
90-93
,共4页
技术合作创新%动态风险%贝叶斯网络%风险评价
技術閤作創新%動態風險%貝葉斯網絡%風險評價
기술합작창신%동태풍험%패협사망락%풍험평개
technical cooperation innovation%dynamic risk%Bayesian network%risk assessment
为提高重大工程项目的风险管理水平，将贝叶斯网络引入到重大水电工程基础灌浆技术合作创新项目的风险评价中，充分利用专家先验知识进行风险的推理评价，并根据现场采样数据所得到的后验概率分布对先验信息进行修正以动态地对技术合作创新项目风险作出较准确的预测评价。结合工程实例，预测了不同风险因素情况下技术合作创新风险的发生概率，及其最有可能的致险因素等，可为重大工程项目风险的动态评价提供一种新的方法与途径。
為提高重大工程項目的風險管理水平，將貝葉斯網絡引入到重大水電工程基礎灌漿技術閤作創新項目的風險評價中，充分利用專傢先驗知識進行風險的推理評價，併根據現場採樣數據所得到的後驗概率分佈對先驗信息進行脩正以動態地對技術閤作創新項目風險作齣較準確的預測評價。結閤工程實例，預測瞭不同風險因素情況下技術閤作創新風險的髮生概率，及其最有可能的緻險因素等，可為重大工程項目風險的動態評價提供一種新的方法與途徑。
위제고중대공정항목적풍험관리수평，장패협사망락인입도중대수전공정기출관장기술합작창신항목적풍험평개중，충분이용전가선험지식진행풍험적추리평개，병근거현장채양수거소득도적후험개솔분포대선험신식진행수정이동태지대기술합작창신항목풍험작출교준학적예측평개。결합공정실례，예측료불동풍험인소정황하기술합작창신풍험적발생개솔，급기최유가능적치험인소등，가위중대공정항목풍험적동태평개제공일충신적방법여도경。
To improve the risk management level of important projects, the Bayesian network technology is introduced into the risk assessment of cooperation innovation works of foundation grouting technology in important hydropower projects. In the assess-ment, firstly, the expert knowledge was made full use of, so as to deduce and assess the risk; then the prior information was modified by posterior probability distribution from the sampling data, and the risk of foundation grouting technology cooperation innovation works of important hydropower project can be evaluated and forecasted dynamically and accurately. Combining with an engineering example, the occurrence probabilities of cooperative technology innovation under different risks were predicted, and the most likely risk factors were also diagnosed and inferred. The research results can provide a new way for dynamic evaluation of important engineering project risk.
