CAJ | 학술논문

降水是北江流域水资源的主要来源，因此研究北江流域降水趋势有利于水资源合理规划和实现可持续利用，但目前的趋势分析主要以单变量趋势检验为主，对多变量的趋势分析研究较少。基于此，分别采用单变量和多变量M-K检验趋势分析方法，针对北江流域6个代表性气象站点1959~2009年逐日降水资料，以各站的年降水量、年降水天数和年最大降水量三个变量为主要研究对象，分析得到北江流域的降水变化整体趋势。结果表明，仁化站、韶关站、乐昌站、连州站和广宁站的变化趋势不显著，清远站的变化趋势显著。在整体趋势分析方面，多变量趋势分析方法可同时考虑降水的多重属性特点，从而可更好分析流域降水整体趋势。
강수시북강류역수자원적주요래원，인차연구북강류역강수추세유리우수자원합리규화화실현가지속이용，단목전적추세분석주요이단변량추세검험위주，대다변량적추세분석연구교소。기우차，분별채용단변량화다변량M-K검험추세분석방법，침대북강류역6개대표성기상참점1959~2009년축일강수자료，이각참적년강수량、년강수천수화년최대강수량삼개변량위주요연구대상，분석득도북강류역적강수변화정체추세。결과표명，인화참、소관참、악창참、련주참화엄저참적변화추세불현저，청원참적변화추세현저。재정체추세분석방면，다변량추세분석방법가동시고필강수적다중속성특점，종이가경호분석류역강수정체추세。
∶ Precipitation is the main source of water resources in the Beijiang River Basin, so studing the changing trend of precipitation is essential to appropriate planning and permanent utilization of water resources. However, the present trend analysis is mainly based on univariate trend test while the multivariate method is rarely applied. Therefore, this paper applied the univariate and multivariate Mann-Kendall trend test method to analyze and obtain the whole trend of the precipitation in the Beijiang River Basin. The input data were extracted from the daily precipitation at 6 representative meteorological stations of the Beijiang River Basin from 1959 to 2009, with the 3 characteristics (the annual precipitation, annual precipitation days and annual peak precipitation) being analyzed specifically. The results indicate that insignificant trend was detected at the stations of Renhua, Shaoguan, Lechang, Lianzhou and Guangning, while significant one detected at Qingyuan station. In the overall trend analysis, multivariate trend test methods can take into account the multiple attributes and characteristics of precipitation, which can better capture the whole precipitation trend of precipitation of the basin.