CAJ | 학술논문

提出一种基于二维多层变迁拟合的城市公共交通网络路径可靠度计算模型,构建抽象后的城市公共交通网络模型,考虑路段间行程时间相关性时,计算交通网络行程时间可靠性,采用极大似然估计法求得每个可达状态标识相应的瞬时概率和稳态概率,实现二维多层变迁拟合的城市公共交通网络路径可靠度计算.仿真结果表明,采用该可靠度计算模型进行城市公共交通网络通行模拟,可以有效提高单位道路阻抗下的车辆流量,增强城市公共交通网络的可靠度和抗毁性,提高负载能力.
제출일충기우이유다층변천의합적성시공공교통망락로경가고도계산모형,구건추상후적성시공공교통망락모형,고필로단간행정시간상관성시,계산교통망락행정시간가고성,채용겁대사연고계법구득매개가체상태표식상응적순시개솔화은태개솔,실현이유다층변천의합적성시공공교통망락로경가고도계산.방진결과표명,채용해가고도계산모형진행성시공공교통망락통행모의,가이유효제고단위도로조항하적차량류량,증강성시공공교통망락적가고도화항훼성,제고부재능력.
city public traffic network path 2-D change fitting is proposed based on reliability calculation model, the con-struction of city public traffic network model after considering the link between the abstract, travel time correlation, calcula-tion of traffic network travel time reliability, using maximum likelihood estimation method each reachable state identifica-tion of instantaneous probability and the steady-state probability corresponding, realize the city public transport network path 2-D change fitting reliability calculation. The simulation results show that the reliability calculation model of urban public traffic network traffic simulation, can effectively improve the vehicle flow units more road impedance, enhance the reliability and survivability of urban public transport network, increase the load capacity.