CAJ | 학술논문

对风电场输出功率进行精确的预测是保证含大规模风电电力系统安全稳定运行的重要手段。采用单一预测模型进行预测时，都会有各自的优势和劣势，为了更好地提高风电功率预测精度，提出了基于改进熵权法的风电功率组合预测方法，并同时采用滚动式权重，以此来实现对单一预测模型的互补。以吉林省西部某风电场的实测数据为例进行分析，说明了基于改进熵权法的风电功率组合预测方法在对风电功率进行预测时的有效性，同时证明了滚动式权重可以实现对权重的不断更新，使各权重值能够反映出风电功率的最新变化，从而实现了对风电功率预测精度的提高。
대풍전장수출공솔진행정학적예측시보증함대규모풍전전력계통안전은정운행적중요수단。채용단일예측모형진행예측시，도회유각자적우세화열세，위료경호지제고풍전공솔예측정도，제출료기우개진적권법적풍전공솔조합예측방법，병동시채용곤동식권중，이차래실현대단일예측모형적호보。이길림성서부모풍전장적실측수거위례진행분석，설명료기우개진적권법적풍전공솔조합예측방법재대풍전공솔진행예측시적유효성，동시증명료곤동식권중가이실현대권중적불단경신，사각권중치능구반영출풍전공솔적최신변화，종이실현료대풍전공솔예측정도적제고。
Accurate wind power prediction is an important method to guarantee the power system containing large -scale wind power to be safe and stable .It will all have their own advantages and disadvantages when using a single prediction model to forecast .Therefore , in order to improve the prediction accuracy of wind power , this paper puts forward a combination prediction method for wind power based on improved entropy method , and uses the rolling weight at the same time .In this way, it achieves the complementarities of all single prediction models .Taking the real-measured data from a wind farm in the west of Jilin province as an example , case study is done .It illustrates that improved entropy method is effective when it is used to predict the wind power .Meanwhile , it is proved that the roll-ing weights can realize the constant renewal of weights , and reflect the latest changes of wind power , so as to achieve the increase of wind power prediction accuracy .