CAJ | 학술논문

基于全国生态环境10年变化（2000—2010年）遥感调查与评估项目中嘉兴市2000年、2005年和2010年3期TM遥感影像数据，运用MCE-CA模型，预测出2005年、2010年土地利用格局，与实际情况进行模拟精度检验，其Kappa系数达到0.94和0.92，证明模型精度很高。通过MCE-CA模型预测嘉兴市2015年、2020年土地利用格局，计算生态服务价值变化率与土地利用强度变化率的比值得到土地利用变化下的生态敏感性指数，运用ArcGIS空间叠加功能分析其过程，目的在于得到生态敏感性分布情况。得出：2000—2020年嘉兴市的景观格局发生了较大变化，耕地大幅度减少，建设用地大幅度增加。2000—2010年生态敏感性急剧增高，说明近10年生态环境受到威胁愈来愈严重；2010—2020年在林草湿地不可转化为建设用地，耕地和未利用地可转化为建设用地的预测情境下，生态敏感性有所降低，生态环境得到改善。此土地利用与生态敏感性预测结果对嘉兴市的城市规划、可持续发展具有一定的借鉴作用。
기우전국생태배경10년변화（2000—2010년）요감조사여평고항목중가흥시2000년、2005년화2010년3기TM요감영상수거，운용MCE-CA모형，예측출2005년、2010년토지이용격국，여실제정황진행모의정도검험，기Kappa계수체도0.94화0.92，증명모형정도흔고。통과MCE-CA모형예측가흥시2015년、2020년토지이용격국，계산생태복무개치변화솔여토지이용강도변화솔적비치득도토지이용변화하적생태민감성지수，운용ArcGIS공간첩가공능분석기과정，목적재우득도생태민감성분포정황。득출：2000—2020년가흥시적경관격국발생료교대변화，경지대폭도감소，건설용지대폭도증가。2000—2010년생태민감성급극증고，설명근10년생태배경수도위협유래유엄중；2010—2020년재림초습지불가전화위건설용지，경지화미이용지가전화위건설용지적예측정경하，생태민감성유소강저，생태배경득도개선。차토지이용여생태민감성예측결과대가흥시적성시규화、가지속발전구유일정적차감작용。
Based on three periods TM remote sensing image data in Jiaxing City of Year 2000, 2005 and 2010 in the national ecological envi-ronment remote sensing investigation and assessment project(2000—2010), by using MCE-CA model, the forecast land use of year 2005 and 2010 was obtained. Compared the forecast land use with the true land use of year 2005 and 2010, the Kappa index was 0.94 and 0.92, it proved that the simulation accuracy of MCE-CA model was high. The land use pattern in 2015 and 2020 could also be obtained by using MCE-CA model. With the rate of land use change intensity ratio and ecological service change value ratio, the land use ecological sensitivity index could be obtained. By using ArcGIS spatial overlay analysis to analyze the process, the sensitivity function distribution could be ob-tained. It concluded that the landscape pattern changed seriously in Jiaxing City from year 2000 to 2020, the farm land decreased greatly, the construction land increased greatly. The ecological sensitivity increased dramatically from year 2000 to 2010, and the ecological environment was threatened more and more seriously. In the situation of the forest, grass and wetlands could not be transformed into construction land, farm land and uncultivated land could be transformed into construction land from year 2010 to 2020, the ecological sensitivity decreased, e-cological environment would be improved. Above all, the land use and ecological sensitivity prediction results is propitious to sustainable de-velopment planning in Jiaxing City.