CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨气象因素对北京市房山区手足口病发病短期波动的影响.方法采用广义相加模型在控制长期趋势、季节性趋势及其它混杂因素基础上,分析房山区2009-2013年周平均温度、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速对手足口病周发病数的影响.结果各气象因素滞后一周对手足口病的发病影响最大,平均气温每升高1℃,手足口病发病数增加1.454％(95％C.I.0.508 ～2.410);相对湿度每升高1％,手足口病发病数增加0.911％ (95％C.I.0.508 ～2.410);日照时数每增加1h,手足口病发病数降低5.517％(95％C.I.-8.509～-2.426);平均风速每升高1m/s,手足口病发病数升高19.118％ (95％C.I.3.909 ～36.553).结论平均气温、相对湿度、日照时数和平均风速与房山区手足口病发病相关,可将其作为预报手足口病发病的指标.
목적 탐토기상인소대북경시방산구수족구병발병단기파동적영향.방법 채용엄의상가모형재공제장기추세、계절성추세급기타혼잡인소기출상,분석방산구2009-2013년주평균온도、상대습도、일조시수、평균풍속대수족구병주발병수적영향.결과 각기상인소체후일주대수족구병적발병영향최대,평균기온매승고1℃,수족구병발병수증가1.454％(95％C.I.0.508 ～2.410);상대습도매승고1％,수족구병발병수증가0.911％ (95％C.I.0.508 ～2.410);일조시수매증가1h,수족구병발병수강저5.517％(95％C.I.-8.509～-2.426);평균풍속매승고1m/s,수족구병발병수승고19.118％ (95％C.I.3.909 ～36.553).결론 평균기온、상대습도、일조시수화평균풍속여방산구수족구병발병상관,가장기작위예보수족구병발병적지표.
Objective To examine the short-term effects of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Fangshan district of Beijing.Methods The association between weekly HFMD cases and meteorological factors in Fangshan from 2009 to 2013 were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM) and time-series analysis,after controlling for long-term trend,seasonality and delayed effects.Results Average temperature,relative humidity,sunshine and wind velocity with one week lag were significantly associated with weekly HFMD cases.We found that 1 ℃ increasing in temperature led to an increase of 1.454％ (95％ C.I.0.508 ～2.410) in the weekly number of HFMD cases.One percent increase in relative humidity may lead to an increase of 0.911％ (95％ C.I.0.508 ～2.410)in the weekly number of HFMD cases.One hour increase in sunshine may lead to an decrease of 5.517％ (95％ C.I.-8.509 ～-2.426) and one meter per hour increase in wind velocity may lead to an increase of 19.118％ (95％ C.I.3.909 ～ 36.553) in the weekly number of HFMD cases.Conclusions Meteorological factors such as the average temperature,relative humidity,sunshine and wind velocity may be important predictors of HFMD transmission in Fangshan district of Beijing.