CAJ | 학술논문

研究了风电场超短期风电功率预测问题，提出一种基于最佳预测步长的超短期风电功率预测模型。为减小模型原始输入数据所导致的预测误差，对原始输入数据进行预处理。通过对比分析基于不同预测步长的超短期风电功率预测模型得到超短期功率预测结果，采用均方根误差作为选择模型最佳预测步长的判据，确定最佳预测步长，建立基于最佳预测步长的超短期风电功率预测模型。利用陕西地区某风电场2014年10~11月的实测功率和短期预测功率数据进行建模和验证，结果验证了该方法的有效性。
연구료풍전장초단기풍전공솔예측문제，제출일충기우최가예측보장적초단기풍전공솔예측모형。위감소모형원시수입수거소도치적예측오차，대원시수입수거진행예처리。통과대비분석기우불동예측보장적초단기풍전공솔예측모형득도초단기공솔예측결과，채용균방근오차작위선택모형최가예측보장적판거，학정최가예측보장，건립기우최가예측보장적초단기풍전공솔예측모형。이용협서지구모풍전장2014년10~11월적실측공솔화단기예측공솔수거진행건모화험증，결과험증료해방법적유효성。
Prediction on ultra-short-term wind power of wind power field was studied and a kind of prediction model for ultra-short-term wind power based on optimal predictive time length was proposed.In order to reduce prediction error caused by original input data of the model,pretreatment for original data was conducted.By means of comparing and analyzing pre-diction model for ultra-short-term wind power based on different predictive time length,prediction result of ultra-short-term power was obtained.Root mean square error was used for selecting and determining optimal predictive time length of the model as well as building a prediction model for ultra-short-term wind power based on optimal predictive time length.On the basis of data of measured power and short-term predictive power from October to November in 2014 of some wind power field in Shaanxi region,modeling and verification was carried on and results verified effectiveness of this method.