西部金融
西部金融
서부금융
WEST CHINA FINANCE
2015年
7期
42-47,54
,共7页
金融支持%城镇化%实证分析%对策建议
金融支持%城鎮化%實證分析%對策建議
금융지지%성진화%실증분석%대책건의
financial support%urbanization%empirical analysis%countermeasure and suggestion
本文构建了全面反映陕西省城镇化发展的指标体系，并利用陕西1994-2014年时间序列数据，采用主成份分析法得到系统反映陕西省城镇化发展的总指数，以及人口经济城镇化和生活质量城镇化两项分指数，进而研究金融支持陕西省城镇化发展的相关性。协整分析结果表明，金融发展规模抑制了城镇化发展，而金融效率提升有助于城镇化发展但存在一定的时滞。进一步的脉冲响和方差分解结果表明，金融发展规模对城镇化的影响作用逐渐减弱，金融发展效率对城镇化发展影响作用逐渐增强，且金融发展效率对城镇化的贡献度大于金融发展规模。依据实证分析结论并结合陕西省的实际情况，建议从公共服务、生活空间、产业结构、信贷产品等方面提升金融支持城镇化发展的效果。
本文構建瞭全麵反映陝西省城鎮化髮展的指標體繫，併利用陝西1994-2014年時間序列數據，採用主成份分析法得到繫統反映陝西省城鎮化髮展的總指數，以及人口經濟城鎮化和生活質量城鎮化兩項分指數，進而研究金融支持陝西省城鎮化髮展的相關性。協整分析結果錶明，金融髮展規模抑製瞭城鎮化髮展，而金融效率提升有助于城鎮化髮展但存在一定的時滯。進一步的脈遲響和方差分解結果錶明，金融髮展規模對城鎮化的影響作用逐漸減弱，金融髮展效率對城鎮化髮展影響作用逐漸增彊，且金融髮展效率對城鎮化的貢獻度大于金融髮展規模。依據實證分析結論併結閤陝西省的實際情況，建議從公共服務、生活空間、產業結構、信貸產品等方麵提升金融支持城鎮化髮展的效果。
본문구건료전면반영합서성성진화발전적지표체계，병이용협서1994-2014년시간서렬수거，채용주성빈분석법득도계통반영합서성성진화발전적총지수，이급인구경제성진화화생활질량성진화량항분지수，진이연구금융지지합서성성진화발전적상관성。협정분석결과표명，금융발전규모억제료성진화발전，이금융효솔제승유조우성진화발전단존재일정적시체。진일보적맥충향화방차분해결과표명，금융발전규모대성진화적영향작용축점감약，금융발전효솔대성진화발전영향작용축점증강，차금융발전효솔대성진화적공헌도대우금융발전규모。의거실증분석결론병결합합서성적실제정황，건의종공공복무、생활공간、산업결구、신대산품등방면제승금융지지성진화발전적효과。
The paper constructs an index system which comprehensively reflects the urbanization development in Shaanxi province. Using time series data from 1994 to 2014 and principal component analysis, the paper gets the total index which systemati-cally reflects the urbanization development in Shaanxi province, and two sub-indices which are the urbanization of population econo-my and urbanization of life quality, and then studies the correlation between the financial support and the urbanization development in Shaanxi province. Co-integration analysis result shows that the financial development scale inhibits the urbanization development, and the advance of the financial efficiency helps the urbanization development, but there is a certain time lag. Further impulse response and variance decomposition results show that the influence of the financial development scale on the urbanization development gradually weakens, while the influence of the financial development efficiency on the urbanization development gradually increases, and the con-tribution of the financial development efficiency to the urbanization is greater than that of the financial development scale. Based on the empirical analysis conclusions and the actual situation of Shaanxi province, the paper suggests enhancing the effect of the financial support for the urbanization development in terms of public services, living space, industrial structure and credit products and so on.
