CAJ | 학술논문

传统金融发展理论对金融与经济的关系始终围绕金融结构、资本形成和创新投资等已知的渗透机制寻找二者的交互关系，然而，发达国家金融发展的经验需要新鲜的视角和理论来重新阐释，我们归纳了“金融趋同”的理论范畴以解释深层次的关联。通过对欧洲国家长期宏观数据的分析，证实了该现象的真实性。新建了ExSAR模型，检验世界各国金融发展是否存在趋同现象；在上述模型运用ML法估计参数，检验世界20个国家金融发展差异是否存在条件β趋同。新模型结果显示出各项估计对比OLS法估计参数提高了显著性水平，空间相关强度系数具有较优的统计性质，均能通过1％显著性的空间依赖性检验，这说明考虑空间的影响是正确的。同时说明近30年欧洲国家的金融发展进程表现出了比较明显的空间溢出效应。
전통금융발전이론대금융여경제적관계시종위요금융결구、자본형성화창신투자등이지적삼투궤제심조이자적교호관계，연이，발체국가금융발전적경험수요신선적시각화이론래중신천석，아문귀납료“금융추동”적이론범주이해석심층차적관련。통과대구주국가장기굉관수거적분석，증실료해현상적진실성。신건료ExSAR모형，검험세계각국금융발전시부존재추동현상；재상술모형운용ML법고계삼수，검험세계20개국가금융발전차이시부존재조건β추동。신모형결과현시출각항고계대비OLS법고계삼수제고료현저성수평，공간상관강도계수구유교우적통계성질，균능통과1％현저성적공간의뢰성검험，저설명고필공간적영향시정학적。동시설명근30년구주국가적금융발전진정표현출료비교명현적공간일출효응。
The traditional theory of financial development on the relationship between finance and economy al-ways focus on the financial structure, capital formation and innovation investments etc.as well-known penetration mechanisms to determine a combination of interaction.However, developed countries need fresh perspective and experience of finance theory to explain again, we summed up the“financial convergence” theory in order to explain the context of deeper Association.Through long-term macroeconomic data of European countries,we confirmed the authenticity of the phenomenon.This study sets up new ExSAR model, testing whether there is convergence in fi-nancial development around the world;the above models adopt ML estimation of parameters tested in 20 countries of the world beta convergence the existence of differences in financial development conditions.Results showed compa-rable to OLS estimates the new model improves the level of estimated parameters, spatial correlation coefficient has the better statistical properties, both pass 1%significance-level test of spatial dependence,which justifies consid-ering spatial effect, in the meantime demonstrating that after the European development in recent 30 years, their fi-nance development process denote more obvious spatial spillover effect.