气象
氣象
기상
METEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY
2015年
8期
932-941
,共10页
郭云云%邓莲堂%范广洲%李泽椿
郭雲雲%鄧蓮堂%範廣洲%李澤椿
곽운운%산련당%범엄주%리택춘
GRARES Meso%积云对流参数化方案%均方根误差%TS 评分%积云降水贡献率
GRARES Meso%積雲對流參數化方案%均方根誤差%TS 評分%積雲降水貢獻率
GRARES Meso%적운대류삼수화방안%균방근오차%TS 평분%적운강수공헌솔
GRARES Meso%cumulus convective parameterization scheme%RMSE%TS score%contribution rate of cumulus precipitation
提利用我国新一代中尺度数值模式 GRARESMeso，采用 KFeta 和 BMJ 两种积云对流参数化方案，对我国2009年冬季（1月）和夏季（6—8月）天气进行批量回报试验。回报试验结果表明：在冬季，两种方案对 GRARESMeso 模式的预报性能影响差异较小。在夏季，两种方案对模式回报效果的影响表现明显。在低层 BMJ 方案对形势场的回报性能略优于 KFeta 方案，中层则是 KFeta 方案明显优于 BMJ 方案，而在高层 KFeta 方案略优于 BMJ 方案。TS 评分检验表明 KFeta 方案对降水的预报总体上优于 BMJ 方案，特别是中雨到暴雨量级在华南地区 KFeta 方案有明显的优势。两个方案预报积云降水平均贡献率的空间分布差异主要表现在低纬度洋面上，BMJ 方案的贡献率比 KFeta 方案大。两个方案积云降水贡献率的概率分布形态在小雨量级上都呈陡峭的“U”型分布。KFeta 方案随着降水量级的增大逐渐向大贡献率偏移，特大暴雨量级时基本上是积云降水的贡献；而 BMJ 参数化方案则是随着降水量级的增大逐渐向小贡献率偏移，特大暴雨量级时基本上是格点降水的贡献。
提利用我國新一代中呎度數值模式 GRARESMeso，採用 KFeta 和 BMJ 兩種積雲對流參數化方案，對我國2009年鼕季（1月）和夏季（6—8月）天氣進行批量迴報試驗。迴報試驗結果錶明：在鼕季，兩種方案對 GRARESMeso 模式的預報性能影響差異較小。在夏季，兩種方案對模式迴報效果的影響錶現明顯。在低層 BMJ 方案對形勢場的迴報性能略優于 KFeta 方案，中層則是 KFeta 方案明顯優于 BMJ 方案，而在高層 KFeta 方案略優于 BMJ 方案。TS 評分檢驗錶明 KFeta 方案對降水的預報總體上優于 BMJ 方案，特彆是中雨到暴雨量級在華南地區 KFeta 方案有明顯的優勢。兩箇方案預報積雲降水平均貢獻率的空間分佈差異主要錶現在低緯度洋麵上，BMJ 方案的貢獻率比 KFeta 方案大。兩箇方案積雲降水貢獻率的概率分佈形態在小雨量級上都呈陡峭的“U”型分佈。KFeta 方案隨著降水量級的增大逐漸嚮大貢獻率偏移，特大暴雨量級時基本上是積雲降水的貢獻；而 BMJ 參數化方案則是隨著降水量級的增大逐漸嚮小貢獻率偏移，特大暴雨量級時基本上是格點降水的貢獻。
제이용아국신일대중척도수치모식 GRARESMeso，채용 KFeta 화 BMJ 량충적운대류삼수화방안，대아국2009년동계（1월）화하계（6—8월）천기진행비량회보시험。회보시험결과표명：재동계，량충방안대 GRARESMeso 모식적예보성능영향차이교소。재하계，량충방안대모식회보효과적영향표현명현。재저층 BMJ 방안대형세장적회보성능략우우 KFeta 방안，중층칙시 KFeta 방안명현우우 BMJ 방안，이재고층 KFeta 방안략우우 BMJ 방안。TS 평분검험표명 KFeta 방안대강수적예보총체상우우 BMJ 방안，특별시중우도폭우량급재화남지구 KFeta 방안유명현적우세。량개방안예보적운강수평균공헌솔적공간분포차이주요표현재저위도양면상，BMJ 방안적공헌솔비 KFeta 방안대。량개방안적운강수공헌솔적개솔분포형태재소우량급상도정두초적“U”형분포。KFeta 방안수착강수량급적증대축점향대공헌솔편이，특대폭우량급시기본상시적운강수적공헌；이 BMJ 삼수화방안칙시수착강수량급적증대축점향소공헌솔편이，특대폭우량급시기본상시격점강수적공헌。
Based on the new generation numerical prediction model GRARES Meso,the numerical experi-ments were carried out to evaluate the two kinds of cumulus convective parameterization schemes,Kain-Fritsch Eta scheme and Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme,for the winter (January)and summer (June-August) 2009.The results show that there is no obvious differences between the two schemes for winter,but some differences exist for the summer.The statistic characteristic of meteorological fields,such as wind,height and temperature,shows that BMJ performances slightly better than KFeta in the low atmospheric layer, but it does not do as well as KFeta in the middle and high layers.The results of T-Score verification indicate that KFeta scheme has a higher score than BMJ scheme for precipitation forecast,especially in pre-dicting moderate to heavy rains over southern China.The spatial distribution of the average contribution rate in total precipitation of the two schemes is different obviously in the low-latitude ocean region,where the contribution rate of BMJ scheme is greater than KFeta scheme.In the drizzle level,the probability dis-tribution of cumulus precipitation contribution rate in total precipitation looks like steep “U”shaped.With the increase of precipitation levels,the proportion of cumulus precipitation of KFeta becomes large.On the contrary,the higher of the precipitation level is,the lower proportion of the cumulus precipitation reaches by using the BMJ cumulus scheme.
