CAJ | 학술논문

收视率是指在某个时段收看某个节目的目标观众人数占总目标人群的比重,以百分比表示。收视率的高低能够反映出节目的观众喜爱程度以及节目所具有的社会影响力。本文采用2006年中国电视收视年鉴中的全国收视数据,以工作日及节假日收视率为研究对象,利用SAS统计软件做时间序列分析,并进行预测。结果显示,节假日收视率数据能够较好的拟合ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))模型,工作日收视率数据则利用ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))模型和AR(1,4)模型拟合结果都较好,但是相对而言ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))拟合效果最好。
수시솔시지재모개시단수간모개절목적목표관음인수점총목표인군적비중,이백분비표시。수시솔적고저능구반영출절목적관음희애정도이급절목소구유적사회영향력。본문채용2006년중국전시수시년감중적전국수시수거,이공작일급절가일수시솔위연구대상,이용SAS통계연건주시간서렬분석,병진행예측。결과현시,절가일수시솔수거능구교호적의합ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))모형,공작일수시솔수거칙이용ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))모형화AR(1,4)모형의합결과도교호,단시상대이언ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))의합효과최호。
Ratings refers to the proportion of target audience in total population,when they watch a show in a certain period of time,expressed by percentage. The level of ratings can refect the degree of audience avorite and the social influence of the program. Based on the rating number of the whole country,in“2006 chinese television viewers yearbook”,this paper analysed the ratings of working days and holidays,using the SAS system software. The results show that time sequence model ARIMA(1,2,(1,4)) fits the holi-day ratings data very well,ARIMA(1,2,(1,4))model and AR(1,4)model fit the working days ratings data both very well. By contrast,the ARIMA(1,2,(1,4)) model is best.