CAJ | 학술논문

受到越来越多的关注，传统的 CPM/PERT 方法已经难以满足人们的需要。本文对现有的进度评估技术进行了改进，加入了对四种任务逻辑关系的支持，并给出了资源冲突时的解决策略，设计并实现了一个面向复杂项目的进度风险评估方法，不仅支持多种随机变量的抽样，还能够给出工期优化策略，旨在帮助项目决策者根据仿真结果识别关键任务，以此来制定合理的工期计划。
수도월래월다적관주，전통적 CPM/PERT 방법이경난이만족인문적수요。본문대현유적진도평고기술진행료개진，가입료대사충임무라집관계적지지，병급출료자원충돌시적해결책략，설계병실현료일개면향복잡항목적진도풍험평고방법，불부지지다충수궤변량적추양，환능구급출공기우화책략，지재방조항목결책자근거방진결과식별관건임무，이차래제정합리적공기계화。
Because modern projects are becoming larger in size and more complex, the proper method to predict and design project’s schedule has drawn many people’s concern. The traditional CPM/PERT method is no longer able to satisfy modern projects. First, this paper sorts out all the schedule risk analysis methods. Second, based on them, a new schedule analysis method which supports all four task logic relationship is given, followed by a strategy to solve the conflicts of task resources. At last, a kind of software is built based on these theories, aiming at helping project manager recognize the critical tasks by simulation results and make a better schedule plan.