软件
軟件
연건
SOFT WARE
2015年
7期
36-41
,共6页
蔡永勇%桑笑楠%张周磊%徐永红
蔡永勇%桑笑楠%張週磊%徐永紅
채영용%상소남%장주뢰%서영홍
进度风险评估%蒙式仿真%成本风险%资源多约束
進度風險評估%矇式倣真%成本風險%資源多約束
진도풍험평고%몽식방진%성본풍험%자원다약속
Schedule risk assessment%Monte Carlo%Cost risk%Multi-resource constraints
在项目管理中由于项目庞大、持续周期长、影响因素繁多，不可避免地会面对潜在的风险。本文对项目潜在的风险进行评估，让项目的管理者对项目有一个长远的认识，防范风险于未然。本文应用资源多约束下项目进度调度（resource-constrained project scheduling problem, RCPSP）问题模型，对进度风险评估系统进行了需求分析和模块划分，设计了系统的框架层次、数据库、资源多约束下的蒙式仿真算法，给出了依据仿真结果计算进度风险和成本风险的统计思路。
在項目管理中由于項目龐大、持續週期長、影響因素繁多，不可避免地會麵對潛在的風險。本文對項目潛在的風險進行評估，讓項目的管理者對項目有一箇長遠的認識，防範風險于未然。本文應用資源多約束下項目進度調度（resource-constrained project scheduling problem, RCPSP）問題模型，對進度風險評估繫統進行瞭需求分析和模塊劃分，設計瞭繫統的框架層次、數據庫、資源多約束下的矇式倣真算法，給齣瞭依據倣真結果計算進度風險和成本風險的統計思路。
재항목관리중유우항목방대、지속주기장、영향인소번다，불가피면지회면대잠재적풍험。본문대항목잠재적풍험진행평고，양항목적관리자대항목유일개장원적인식，방범풍험우미연。본문응용자원다약속하항목진도조도（resource-constrained project scheduling problem, RCPSP）문제모형，대진도풍험평고계통진행료수구분석화모괴화분，설계료계통적광가층차、수거고、자원다약속하적몽식방진산법，급출료의거방진결과계산진도풍험화성본풍험적통계사로。
Due to the tremendousness, long-term and a variety of factors of the projects during the projects man-agement, there are inevitably some potential risks. Therefore, this paper is designed for the assessment of potential risks in projects, thus helping users have a further understanding of projects and being able to prevent risks in advance. This paper firstly presents research background and research status at home and abroad, then introduces some concepts of project management and risk management, particularly focusing on resource-constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP). After that, it designs the Monte Carlo which is constrained by the framework level, the database and the mul-ti-resources. Besides, it proposes the method for the calculation of the schedule risks and the cost risks based on the simulation results.
