CAJ | 학술논문

利用企业家信心和宏观经济数据，通过构建一个包含信心的DSGE模型对信心影响宏观经济波动的作用机制进行了分析。结果表明：信心对宏观经济具有显著的影响；信心对产出、投资和就业的影响存在一定的滞后性；技术冲击能很好的解释短期（一年以内）的经济波动，但是对中长期的经济波动解释能力不足，而信心冲击则是对短期经济波动缺乏解释能力，但是对中长期经济波动的解释却要比技术冲击好。
이용기업가신심화굉관경제수거，통과구건일개포함신심적DSGE모형대신심영향굉관경제파동적작용궤제진행료분석。결과표명：신심대굉관경제구유현저적영향；신심대산출、투자화취업적영향존재일정적체후성；기술충격능흔호적해석단기（일년이내）적경제파동，단시대중장기적경제파동해석능력불족，이신심충격칙시대단기경제파동결핍해석능력，단시대중장기경제파동적해석각요비기술충격호。
In this paper, we formulate a DSGE model driven by conifdence to analyze the mechanism of conifdence effect of the macroeconomic lfuctuation. The results show that conifdence has signiifcant effects on the macro economy; that conifdence affects GDP, investment and labor with a delay; and that the technology shock can explain well the short-term economic lfuctuations rather than the long-term economic lfuctuations. And the long-term economic lfuctuations can be best explained by conifdence shock.