CAJ | 학술논문

运用LMDI完全分解方法将1995—2010年三个“五年”规划期间我国制造业产业CO 2排放分解为排放因子效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应、产业结构效应和产业规模效应。通过产业发展与CO 2排放脱钩测度模型计算，发现制造业经历了强复钩(1996—1999)、弱脱钩(2000—2001)、扩张性复钩(2002—2004)、弱脱钩(2005—2010)四个阶段。研究发现：产业规模扩张是导致我国制造业CO 2排放增加的主要原因，产业结构变化也在一定程度上影响了CO 2的排放变化，而能源强度降低是CO 2排放减少的主要因素，排放因子效应和能源结构效应对CO 2排放的变化起不到决定性的作用，但也在一定程度上影响了CO 2的排放。
운용LMDI완전분해방법장1995—2010년삼개“오년”규화기간아국제조업산업CO 2배방분해위배방인자효응、능원강도효응、능원결구효응、산업결구효응화산업규모효응。통과산업발전여CO 2배방탈구측도모형계산，발현제조업경력료강복구(1996—1999)、약탈구(2000—2001)、확장성복구(2002—2004)、약탈구(2005—2010)사개계단。연구발현：산업규모확장시도치아국제조업CO 2배방증가적주요원인，산업결구변화야재일정정도상영향료CO 2적배방변화，이능원강도강저시CO 2배방감소적주요인소，배방인자효응화능원결구효응대CO 2배방적변화기불도결정성적작용，단야재일정정도상영향료CO 2적배방。
This essay, by adopting the Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method based on the extended Kaya identity, studies the total carbon dioxide emissions by China’s manufacturing industry during the period 1996—2010 from the following including emission factors, energy intensity, energy structure, industry structure, and industry scale. As the results suggest, China’s manufacturing industry has gone through four decoupling stages: strong negative decoupling stage (1996—1999), weak decoupling stage (2000—2001), expansive negative decoupling stage (2002—2004), and weak decoupling stage (2005—2010). Findings show that the increase in economic output has the largest effect on the increase of CO2 emissions and that the decrease in energy intensity has incurred a considerable decrease in CO2 emissions. Moreover, the impacts of emission factors, industry structure, and energy structure on CO2 emissions are relatively small and not the determining factors to the changes of CO2 emissions.