CAJ | 학술논문

通过野外地震地质调查并参考前人研究成果，分析三江口水库区的地质构造背景、地震活动性及水文地质条件等资料，对该水库诱发地震的可能性进行分析。构造类比法分析表明：蓄水后发生构造型水库诱发地震的可能性较小，但有可能发生岩溶塌陷型水库诱发地震。概率预测法分析表明：库首段(新滩子—狮狸弯)发震概率较小，仅为0.02；库中段(狮狸弯—牛鼻子)岩溶不太发育，诱震可能性较小，不发震的概率为0.96；库尾段(牛鼻子—峡马口)有可能诱发微震，发震(M <3.0)概率为0.10。
통과야외지진지질조사병삼고전인연구성과，분석삼강구수고구적지질구조배경、지진활동성급수문지질조건등자료，대해수고유발지진적가능성진행분석。구조류비법분석표명：축수후발생구조형수고유발지진적가능성교소，단유가능발생암용탑함형수고유발지진。개솔예측법분석표명：고수단(신탄자—사리만)발진개솔교소，부위0.02；고중단(사리만—우비자)암용불태발육，유진가능성교소，불발진적개솔위0.96；고미단(우비자—협마구)유가능유발미진，발진(M <3.0)개솔위0.10。
Based on field investigations and previous research results,this study analyzes the tec-tonic background,seismic activity,and hydrogeology condition of the Sanjiangkou reservoir area. The Yushan fault is the main fault located in the southeast margin of the Sanjiangkou reservoir area.The other major fault is termed the Mawu fault,which is exposed in the west margin of the Sanjiangkou reservoir area.The active age of the Yushan fault is mid-Pleistocene and the Mawu fault is pre-Quaternary.The level of historic and current seismicity is low in the reservoir area. Employing structural analogy and probabilistic statistic methods,the probability of the induced earthquake in the Sanjiangkou reservoir area is discussed.These results are used to compare the Sanjiangkou reservoir with other reservoirs that have experienced earthquakes.The structural analogy method analysis showed that the possibility of tectonic-type reservoir-induced earth-quakes is small following impoundment.However,there is the possibility of a karst subsidence-type reservoir-induced earthquake.This event could occur because of the existence of a large amount of thick layers of limestone in the reservoir area that could foster karst development.The loading and infiltration effects of water may easily cause rock collapse and crack propagation in the karst cave.This would induce a karst subsidence-type reservoir-induced earthquake.Consider-ing the conditions of the Sanjiangkou reservoir area eight induced earthquake factors were selected to conduct the probabilistic prediction of the earthquake magnitude.These factors were reservoir water depth,lithology,regional state of stress,fault activity,degree of karst development,fault permeable depth,communication with the reservoir water,and seismic activity background.Based on the geological conditions and induced earthquake environment of the Sanjiangkou reservoir area,the reservoir area was divided into three segments:the head (Xintanzi-Shiliwan),middle (Shiliwan-Niubizi),and end (Niubizi-Xiamakou)regions.Using the MATLAB software pro-gramming,the probability of five earthquake magnitude was calculated for the three segments. The larger earthquake magnitude grading range was selected that corresponded to the relative probability value.The grading range was considered as the possible earthquake magnitude.The probabilistic statistic method analysis showed that the reservoir’s head region (Xintanzi-Shili-wan)had a small possibility of an induced earthquake with a possibility of earthquake occurrence of 0.02.The reservoir’s middle region (Shiliwan-Niubizi),where the karst development is un-likely,had a possibility of induced earthquake of 0.96.The end region (Niubizi-Xiamakou)may induce microseismic activity with the possibility of induced M L (M < 3.0)of 0.10.