东北林业大学学报
東北林業大學學報
동북임업대학학보
JOURNAL OF NORTHEAST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY
2015年
8期
105-108
,共4页
森林资源-环境-经济复合系统%可持续发展预警模型%黑龙江省
森林資源-環境-經濟複閤繫統%可持續髮展預警模型%黑龍江省
삼림자원-배경-경제복합계통%가지속발전예경모형%흑룡강성
FEES%Early warning model of sustainable development%Heilongjiang Province
以黑龙江省国有林区森林资源－环境－经济复合系统（ FEES）的可持续良性发展为目标，结合黑龙江省国有林区自身特点，利用解析结构模型筛选预警指标体系；通过样本训练和结构优化，建立了BP神经网络的预警模型。可持续发展预警分析表明：预警模型选用指标合理，预警结果拟合度较高；从中期看，黑龙江省国有林区的FEES可持续发展水平较为健康，整体发展趋势较好。
以黑龍江省國有林區森林資源－環境－經濟複閤繫統（ FEES）的可持續良性髮展為目標，結閤黑龍江省國有林區自身特點，利用解析結構模型篩選預警指標體繫；通過樣本訓練和結構優化，建立瞭BP神經網絡的預警模型。可持續髮展預警分析錶明：預警模型選用指標閤理，預警結果擬閤度較高；從中期看，黑龍江省國有林區的FEES可持續髮展水平較為健康，整體髮展趨勢較好。
이흑룡강성국유림구삼림자원－배경－경제복합계통（ FEES）적가지속량성발전위목표，결합흑룡강성국유림구자신특점，이용해석결구모형사선예경지표체계；통과양본훈련화결구우화，건립료BP신경망락적예경모형。가지속발전예경분석표명：예경모형선용지표합리，예경결과의합도교고；종중기간，흑룡강성국유림구적FEES가지속발전수평교위건강，정체발전추세교호。
In order to achieve the sustainable and benign development of the FEES in the state-owned forest zone in Heilongjiang Province, taking the self-characteristics, we screened the warning index system by analyzing the structure.We built up an early warning model based on BP neural network by training the samples and optimizing the compositions.By analyzing the alert of sustainable development, the indexes of the early warning model were reasonable with a relatively higher fitting de-gree.In the medium term, the FEES in the state-owned forest zone in Heilongjiang Province achieved a healthy and sus-tainable development with desired overall development trend.
