CAJ | 학술논문

以我国北方4省10年（2002—2011）77个灾害点的虫情数据和由油松毛虫（Dendrolimus tabulaeformis）具体生活史衍生的73个气象因子为基础，运用典型相关分析法和主成分分析法，筛选出了与油松毛虫不同发生程度相关的主要气象因子。结果表明：与重度发生呈正相关的是Ⅱ期平均最高温度（r＝09．3）、9月份最高温度（r＝0．81），而与重度发生呈负相关的是年平均湿度（ r＝－0．69）；与中度发生相关的主要是Ⅰ期平均温度（ r＝0．49）、Ⅱ期平均温度（ r＝0．61）；与轻度发生相关的主要是年平均温度（ r＝0．75）、Ⅲ期平均相对湿度（ r＝0．62）。此结果结合其他的环境因子，在以温度和降水变化为主要特征的气候变化背景下，可对林业有害生物灾害暴发进行评价和预报。
이아국북방4성10년（2002—2011）77개재해점적충정수거화유유송모충（Dendrolimus tabulaeformis）구체생활사연생적73개기상인자위기출，운용전형상관분석법화주성분분석법，사선출료여유송모충불동발생정도상관적주요기상인자。결과표명：여중도발생정정상관적시Ⅱ기평균최고온도（r＝09．3）、9월빈최고온도（r＝0．81），이여중도발생정부상관적시년평균습도（ r＝－0．69）；여중도발생상관적주요시Ⅰ기평균온도（ r＝0．49）、Ⅱ기평균온도（ r＝0．61）；여경도발생상관적주요시년평균온도（ r＝0．75）、Ⅲ기평균상대습도（ r＝0．62）。차결과결합기타적배경인자，재이온도화강수변화위주요특정적기후변화배경하，가대임업유해생물재해폭발진행평개화예보。
We studied the main climate factors on the pest outbreaks from the actual pest monitoring survey records data on coun -ty level in 2002-2011, with the main host distribution area of 77 sites in four provinces of China.There were totally 73 cli-mate factors derived from 6 ordinary observed datasets by related meteorological stations by part accumulation, averaging or relative extremum from four development stages of the pest.We used canonical correlation analysis and principal component analysis to screen the factors with the different levels of the outbreaks.The average highest temperature of Ⅱ ( r=0.93) and the highest temperature in September ( r=0.81) had strong positive correlations with the heavy outbreak, while the av-erage temperature of the year ( r=-0.69) was the main negative factors with heavy outbreaks.The average temperature ofⅠ( r=0.49) and the average temperature of Ⅱ ( r=0.61) had positive correlations with middle occurrence of the pest. The average temperature of the year ( r=0.75) and the average relative humidity ofⅢ( r=0.62) had the main correlations with the light occurrence of the pest.