CAJ | 학술논문

目前，国际油价处于低价运行状况，这对尚处于发展初级阶段的新能源产业产生了较大挑战。本研究（1）分析了不同国际油价和新能源产业成长水平静态组合情景下的整体能源安全状况。（2）刻画了在投机性和战略性两种新能源推动政策框架下，国际油价价格走势对新能源产业成长速度的动态关系。（3）基于历史规律，界定出当前和未来国际油价和新能源产业所可能处的周期阶段。（4）在对不同政策框架下，预测中国未来5～10年新能源产业发展和整体能源安全态势，并提出相应的对策。
목전，국제유개처우저개운행상황，저대상처우발전초급계단적신능원산업산생료교대도전。본연구（1）분석료불동국제유개화신능원산업성장수평정태조합정경하적정체능원안전상황。（2）각화료재투궤성화전략성량충신능원추동정책광가하，국제유개개격주세대신능원산업성장속도적동태관계。（3）기우역사규률，계정출당전화미래국제유개화신능원산업소가능처적주기계단。（4）재대불동정책광가하，예측중국미래5～10년신능원산업발전화정체능원안전태세，병제출상응적대책。
The international oil price has been in the relatively low level currently , which would challenge the development of new energy industry . The paper firstly analyses the situation of total energy security under the condition of different static combinations of level of international oil price and new energy industry maturity . Secondly , the dynamic relationship between international oil price trend and the velocity of new energy industry maturity is portrayed under the circumstance of speculative or strategic new energy industry promoting poli-cies . And then , basing on the regular pattern of history , the possible stages of the both circles are ascertained . Finally , the situation of new energy industry and total energy security in China are predicted for the future of 5-10 years . Accordingly , the suitable measures are suggested .