CAJ | 학술논문

从理论上说，地方政府财政支出对居民消费的影响效应有“挤入”与“挤出”之争。运用安徽省16个地级市面板数据，从总量和结构效应两个维度来实证分析地方政府财政支出对城乡居民消费的影响。结果表明：从总量效应看，地方政府财政支出对城乡居民消费均具有“挤入”效应，且对城镇居民消费的挤入效果更明显。从结构效应看，地方政府行政管理支出对城乡居民消费均具有“挤出”效应；医疗卫生支出对城乡居民消费均具有“挤入”效应；教育支出对城镇居民消费具有“挤入”效应，但是对农村居民消费的影响却不明显；社会保障支出对城乡居民消费的影响均不明显。
종이론상설，지방정부재정지출대거민소비적영향효응유“제입”여“제출”지쟁。운용안휘성16개지급시면판수거，종총량화결구효응량개유도래실증분석지방정부재정지출대성향거민소비적영향。결과표명：종총량효응간，지방정부재정지출대성향거민소비균구유“제입”효응，차대성진거민소비적제입효과경명현。종결구효응간，지방정부행정관리지출대성향거민소비균구유“제출”효응；의료위생지출대성향거민소비균구유“제입”효응；교육지출대성진거민소비구유“제입”효응，단시대농촌거민소비적영향각불명현；사회보장지출대성향거민소비적영향균불명현。
In theory, the effect of fiscal expenditure impact on residents'consumption can be divided into two as-pects:"crowding-in-effect"or"crowding-out-effect".Using the panel data of 16 cities from Anhui prov-ince, this paper analyses the influence of local government fiscal expenditure to consumption of urban and rural residents from the two dimensions of the total and structure effects.The results shows:from the total effect, local government fiscal expenditure has"crowd-in-effect"on the consumption of urban and rural residents, and the consumption of urban residents'crowding-in-effecti's more obvious than that of the rural residents .From the structure effect, the administrative expenditure of local government has "crowding -out -effect"on the con-sumption of urban and rural residents;the health expenditure has"crowding-in-effect"on the consumption of urban and rural residents; education expenditure has "crowding-in -effect"on consumption of urban resi-dents, but the impact on rural residents'consumption is not obvious;the effects of social security expenditure on bot the urban and rural residents'consumption are not obvious.