CAJ | 학술논문

研究地下水资源承载力准确预测问题，是对区域地下水开发利用状况的一种定量描述。本研究采用定性和定量相结合的方法，基于吐鲁番市水资源现状，采用系统动力学仿真模型研究方法，建立吐鲁番地区地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型。预测2011－2025年吐鲁番地区不同发展策略下各指标数值。仿真结果表明：地下水资源承载力系统动力学模型能够动态仿真和并能够调控地下水资源承载力。研究结果可为吐鲁番地区地下水开发利用规划的制定提供一定的理论指导依据。
연구지하수자원승재력준학예측문제，시대구역지하수개발이용상황적일충정량묘술。본연구채용정성화정량상결합적방법，기우토로번시수자원현상，채용계통동역학방진모형연구방법，건립토로번지구지하수자원승재력계통동역학모형。예측2011－2025년토로번지구불동발전책략하각지표수치。방진결과표명：지하수자원승재력계통동역학모형능구동태방진화병능구조공지하수자원승재력。연구결과가위토로번지구지하수개발이용규화적제정제공일정적이론지도의거。
Based on the system dynamics model ,simulation and predict problems of groundwater resources in Turpan Area .In this paper ,based on the present situation of water resources ,the system dynamics model in Turpan Area of is established and a series of indexes of different developing tactics for Turpan Area is simulated from 2011 to 2025 .The simulation results show that the system dynamics model can simulate and adjust the groundwater resources carrying capacity .The data before 2011 is used to establish and test the model and parameters ,and the data after 2011 is used for prediction .Though the research ,we analyze the key issues simula‐ting the evolution ,for the future development of the Turpan Area and propose the best scenario simulation model of sustainable de‐velopment .