CAJ | 학술논문

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康，且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势，本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例，将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期，分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明，政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围，尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管，在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。
무매재해불부위해공음건강，차풍험신식적전파회인발사회차급풍험。위료연구사회풍험신식적확산연화추세，본문구건료무매사회풍험적정경신식확산모형。이중국2013년무매재해위례，장풍험신식확산과정분위폭발기、확산기화은정기，분석료불동삼수조건하적신식확산규률。결과표명，정부응재풍험신식폭발기화확산기증대관방거도신식적복개범위，우기재폭발기수대자유거도발포적신식진행엄격감관，재사회풍험확대지전제정응대책략。
Haze not only endangered public health but also cause secondary risks.In order to study the evolution trend of so-cial risk information, this paper built a scenario information diffusion model of socialrisk of haze .Takinga haze hazard in 2013 as an example,the haze diffusion process was divided into three different stages separately named outbreak period, diffusion period and plateau period.This paper analyzed the evolution of risk information diffusion under thedifferent parameters.Results showed that the government should increase coverage area of official information in the period of outbreak and diffusion , especially super-vise strictly the information released by free channels, and develop coping strategies before the social riskamplification.