CAJ | 학술논문

在油气田开发中，准确的产量预测对开发调整部署和提高措施作业的效益有重要作用，灰色GM（1，1）模型灰色预测方法具有所需样本少、预测精度高、计算速度快和操作方便等优点，特别适用于油气井生产指标的预测。针对传统的灰色GM（1，1）模型在建模和预测过程中存在的不合理性，对原始数据进行预处理以提高原始数据序列的光滑度，并以任意数据点作为已知条件，优选模型边界条件，建立改进的灰色GM（1，1）模型，通过实际生产数据的验证，改进后的模型提高了预测精度，预测结果可靠，能为生产决策提供参考。
재유기전개발중，준학적산량예측대개발조정부서화제고조시작업적효익유중요작용，회색GM（1，1）모형회색예측방법구유소수양본소、예측정도고、계산속도쾌화조작방편등우점，특별괄용우유기정생산지표적예측。침대전통적회색GM（1，1）모형재건모화예측과정중존재적불합이성，대원시수거진행예처리이제고원시수거서렬적광활도，병이임의수거점작위이지조건，우선모형변계조건，건립개진적회색GM（1，1）모형，통과실제생산수거적험증，개진후적모형제고료예측정도，예측결과가고，능위생산결책제공삼고。
In the process of field development, it’s extremely important to exactly predict the production for development, disposi?tion readjustment and measures efficiency improvement. GM(1,1)grey model predicting method has the benefits of lower cost, high exactness, fast computer speed and easy operation, especially for the well production index prediction. Aiming at the irrational?ity of the traditional process of modeling and predicting of GM(1,1)grey model, the original data was preprocessed to increase the smoothness of initial data series. Meanwhile, random data point was regarded as a known condition to select model boundary condi?tions, and a developed GM(1,1)grey model was established. According to actual production data, it tests that the prediction accura?cy is improved by this new model. The result is reliable so that it can provide references for production decision.