CAJ | 학술논문

根据2000-2011年中国、日本以及韩国三国的鲐鱼大型灯光围网渔业生产统计数据以及相关经济数据，运用贝叶斯方法构建东、黄海鲐鱼贝叶斯生物经济模型，分别以剩余产量模型参数 r、K、q 的均匀分布、正态分布和对数正态分布3种方案，来模拟不同管理策略下鲐鱼资源量及渔业短期、中期和长期利润变动规律，并对其管理策略进行风险分析。结果显示，参数 r、K、q 为正态分布和对数正态分布方案下估算出的管理参考点期望值(正态方案下的 BMSY 除外)均小于均匀分布方案估算出来的期望值。研究认为，如果单从生物学角度来看，若将管理策略设定为收获率0.4以上，则2031年以后资源量可能存在着资源崩溃的风险。较为保守的管理策略应将收获率设定在0.3左右，此时概率(B2031>BMSY)大于0.85，最大可持续产量 MSY 约为35万 t。同样地，如果仅从经济学角度考虑，将收获率控制在0.1时，概率(B2031>BMEY)都为1，且概率(B2031<BBE)都是0，即能够实现渔业经济效益最大化，且其经济无效益的概率为0。基于贝叶斯的鲐鱼生物经济模型为渔业资源管理提供了分析手段。
근거2000-2011년중국、일본이급한국삼국적태어대형등광위망어업생산통계수거이급상관경제수거，운용패협사방법구건동、황해태어패협사생물경제모형，분별이잉여산량모형삼수 r、K、q 적균균분포、정태분포화대수정태분포3충방안，래모의불동관리책략하태어자원량급어업단기、중기화장기리윤변동규률，병대기관리책략진행풍험분석。결과현시，삼수 r、K、q 위정태분포화대수정태분포방안하고산출적관리삼고점기망치(정태방안하적 BMSY 제외)균소우균균분포방안고산출래적기망치。연구인위，여과단종생물학각도래간，약장관리책략설정위수획솔0.4이상，칙2031년이후자원량가능존재착자원붕궤적풍험。교위보수적관리책략응장수획솔설정재0.3좌우，차시개솔(B2031>BMSY)대우0.85，최대가지속산량 MSY 약위35만 t。동양지，여과부종경제학각도고필，장수획솔공제재0.1시，개솔(B2031>BMEY)도위1，차개솔(B2031<BBE)도시0，즉능구실현어업경제효익최대화，차기경제무효익적개솔위0。기우패협사적태어생물경제모형위어업자원관리제공료분석수단。
According to the fishery data of light purse seine fisheries of China, Japan and South Korea and the associated economic data during 2000 to 2011, the Bayesian method was used to construct the bio-economic models of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea under three assumptions (uniform distribution, normal distribution and log-normal distribution). The resource status and economic benefits under three different management strategies (short-term, medium-term and long-term) were compared and the suitable management strategies were evaluated. The results showed that the most estimated expectation (except for BMSY under the normal distribution scenario) of management reference points under the normal distribution and log-normal distribution was less than that under the uniform distribution. It suggested that from the biological perspective, if the harvest rate is settled to more than 0.4, the biomass after 2031 may collapse, and the more conservative management strategy should be settled the harvest rate at 0.3. The probability of B2031>BMSY is greater than 0.85, and MSY is about 350 thousand tons. Likewise, if only from the economics perspective, the harvest rate is controlled at 0.1, the probability of B2031>BMEY is 1, and the probability of B2031<BBE is 0, it is able to maximize the economic benefits of fisheries and minimize the probability of economic inefficiency. This bio-economic model based on Bayesian method will be a useful tool for management strategy analysis for Chub mackerel.