CAJ | 학술논문

利用 TIGGE（THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble）资料中的 CMC、ECMWF、NCEP 和 UKMO 4个中心全球集合预报模式对2007年10月3日—2008年2月29日逐日累积降水进行多模式集成预报试验。通过集合平均、多模式消除偏差集合平均、加权消除偏差集成3种方法进行试验对比，重点分析各中心模式及多模式集成的240～360 h（10～15 d）延伸期预报的检验效果。结果表明，多模式集成对逐日累积降水240～360 h 延伸期预报优于单个中心模式，将逐日降水的预报时效提高了72～168 h。3种集成方法对比发现，多模式消除偏差集合平均方法预报效果最好，该方法将晴雨量级的降水预报时效在中短期和延伸期至少提高了1 d 和5 d。
이용 TIGGE（THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble）자료중적 CMC、ECMWF、NCEP 화 UKMO 4개중심전구집합예보모식대2007년10월3일—2008년2월29일축일루적강수진행다모식집성예보시험。통과집합평균、다모식소제편차집합평균、가권소제편차집성3충방법진행시험대비，중점분석각중심모식급다모식집성적240～360 h（10～15 d）연신기예보적검험효과。결과표명，다모식집성대축일루적강수240～360 h 연신기예보우우단개중심모식，장축일강수적예보시효제고료72～168 h。3충집성방법대비발현，다모식소제편차집합평균방법예보효과최호，해방법장청우량급적강수예보시효재중단기화연신기지소제고료1 d 화5 d。
Multimodel consensus forecasts are investigated by using the ensemble mean outcomes of the 24-360 h ensemble fore-casts for the daily accumulated total precipitation from October 3,2007 to February 29,2008 ,which was taken from the CMC, ECMWF,NCEP and UKMO models,focusing on the extended range forecast.The results show that the multimodel consensus that extended the range forecasts of the daily accumulated total precipitation have higher forecast skills than all the single models. The bias-removed ensemble mean has the best performance and the weighted bias-removed ensemble mean technique has even the same performance with Bias-Removed Ensemble Mean (BREM).