CAJ | 학술논문

为了探明流域产汇流参数变化特征及其演变机理，分析流域下垫面条件变化对设计洪水的影响.通过新安江海河模型研究卫河流域代表区下垫面变化情况，采用综合线性权重法对元村集站设计洪水资料系列进行一致性修正.结果表明：自由水蓄水容量、河网水流退水系数、地表填洼蓄水能力和地下水库出流初始水深这4个参数在1980年后都变大，可见代表区下垫面1980年前、后发生了明显的变化，导致流域内径流量大幅减少；合河—新村—五陵区间在1980年前15场洪水和1980年后32场洪水的预报径流深合格率都超过80%，达到乙等精度；元村集站最大5日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小27.1%；最大15日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小25.4%；最大30日洪量修正后比修正前平均减小23.0%.本研究可为水利工程的建设规模的确定提供科学依据，保障地区的防洪安全，满足人民生活和生产用水需求.
위료탐명류역산회류삼수변화특정급기연변궤리，분석류역하점면조건변화대설계홍수적영향.통과신안강해하모형연구위하류역대표구하점면변화정황，채용종합선성권중법대원촌집참설계홍수자료계렬진행일치성수정.결과표명：자유수축수용량、하망수류퇴수계수、지표전와축수능력화지하수고출류초시수심저4개삼수재1980년후도변대，가견대표구하점면1980년전、후발생료명현적변화，도치류역내경류량대폭감소；합하—신촌—오릉구간재1980년전15장홍수화1980년후32장홍수적예보경류심합격솔도초과80%，체도을등정도；원촌집참최대5일홍량수정후비수정전평균감소27.1%；최대15일홍량수정후비수정전평균감소25.4%；최대30일홍량수정후비수정전평균감소23.0%.본연구가위수리공정적건설규모적학정제공과학의거，보장지구적방홍안전，만족인민생활화생산용수수구.
To ascertain characteristics of parameters of watershed runoff and converge and evolution mechanism of runoff changes, effects of watershed surface changes on flooding design have been analyzed. Land surface changes of Weihe watershed using Xin’anjiang-Haihe Model have been studied and the consistency of flood series was corrected using integrated linear weight method. The results indicated that the parameters of the free water storage capacity, the recession constant in the“lag and route” method, the interception and the retention capacity of surface runoff and the outflow initial depth of underground reservoir all increased and the underlying surface had obvious changes after 1980, resulting in the reduction of runoff in the watershed. Runoff depth modeling between Hehe watershed and Wuling watershed for 15 floods before 1980 and 32 floods after 1980 were all more than 80% accurate compared with the records in the datasets, reaching the accuracy of the second-best class in all the records. After the corrected-pa-rameters, the modeling 5th largest flood has reduced 27. 1% errors, the 15th largest flood reduced 25. 4% errors, and the 30th largest flood reduced 23. 0% errors, compared with the previous modelings on average. The study provided a scientific basis for constructing the water projects, being safeguard of floods, and satisfying the demand of water supply for people’s daily lives and in-dustrial activities.