CAJ | 학술논문

目的：对非腹部手术史预测小肠梗阻手术治疗的预测因子进行探讨，建立预测模型，对其临床价值进行分析。方法：回顾性分析青岛大学医学院附属医院2012年8月至2012年12月期间诊断为小肠梗阻的71例患者资料，对患者临床资料应用Logistic进行统计分析，建立手术治疗的预测模型。结果：经过统计分析，男性34例，占47.8%，女性37例，占52.2%。71例患者中病因明确的有41例（57.7%），病因不明的有30例(42.3%)。患者的高热、心率减弱、腹痛、腹痛进行性加重、恶心、呕吐、压痛、腹膜炎体征、肠鸣音减弱等9个危险因素与小肠梗阻手术治疗的方案制定有所联系。进行Logistic回归分析后，根据其作用强度，依次是高热、恶心呕吐、腹痛进行性加重、腹部压痛、腹膜炎体征以及肠鸣音减弱等。根据预测模型是否需要手术治疗的准确度为75.7%，敏感度为67.3%，特异度为82.1%。结论：采用Logistic回归模型是判断非腹部手术史在预测小肠梗阻手术治疗中的价值，从而指导临床诊治。
목적：대비복부수술사예측소장경조수술치료적예측인자진행탐토，건립예측모형，대기림상개치진행분석。방법：회고성분석청도대학의학원부속의원2012년8월지2012년12월기간진단위소장경조적71례환자자료，대환자림상자료응용Logistic진행통계분석，건립수술치료적예측모형。결과：경과통계분석，남성34례，점47.8%，녀성37례，점52.2%。71례환자중병인명학적유41례（57.7%），병인불명적유30례(42.3%)。환자적고열、심솔감약、복통、복통진행성가중、악심、구토、압통、복막염체정、장명음감약등9개위험인소여소장경조수술치료적방안제정유소련계。진행Logistic회귀분석후，근거기작용강도，의차시고열、악심구토、복통진행성가중、복부압통、복막염체정이급장명음감약등。근거예측모형시부수요수술치료적준학도위75.7%，민감도위67.3%，특이도위82.1%。결론：채용Logistic회귀모형시판단비복부수술사재예측소장경조수술치료중적개치，종이지도림상진치。
Object:To explore the value of no previous abdominal surgical history in predicting the necessity of surgical prucedure in patients with small bowel obstruction (SBO), prediction model is established, and analyze its clinical value.Method:a retrospective analysi s of Qingdao university medical college affiliated hospital during August 2012 to December 2012, 71 cases of small bowel obstruction diag nosed by patient data, clinical data of patients using Logistic statistical analysis, to establish the forecast model of surgical treatment.Result:The results of After statistical analysis, the male 34 cases, accounting for 47.8% and female 37 cases, accounting for 52.2%. Of 71 cases of 4 1 cases of clear cause (57.7%) and unknown etiology of 30 patients (42.3%). High fever, heart rate reduced, abdominal pain, abdominal pai n in patients with progression, nausea, vomiting, tenderness, signs of peritonitis, weakening of bowel sounds nine risk factors and the oper ative treatment of small intestinal obstruction scheme.Conclusion:Using Logistic regression model is to determine the history of abdominal surgery in predicting a value in the treatment of small intestinal obstruction operation, so as to guide the clinical diagnosis and treatment.