CAJ | 학술논문

本文将城镇化率引入STIRPAT模型，应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、经济及技术因素对碳排放的影响。对黑龙江省1993至2012年这阶段的碳排放情况的进行实证研究，结果表明，人口增加、经济增长、城镇化率提高对黑龙江省1993-2012年碳排放具有增量效应，是导致黑龙江省碳排放持续增加的驱动因素。能源强度对碳排放具有减量效应，提高能源利用率是黑龙江省实现碳减排的重要途径。
본문장성진화솔인입STIRPAT모형，응용령회귀방법계량분석인구、경제급기술인소대탄배방적영향。대흑룡강성1993지2012년저계단적탄배방정황적진행실증연구，결과표명，인구증가、경제증장、성진화솔제고대흑룡강성1993-2012년탄배방구유증량효응，시도치흑룡강성탄배방지속증가적구동인소。능원강도대탄배방구유감량효응，제고능원이용솔시흑룡강성실현탄감배적중요도경。
In this paper urbanization rate is introduced into STIRPAT model. Using the application of ridge regression method to measure the factor of population, economic and technical on carbon emissions. Through the study of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province from 1993 to 2012, we can see the increas-ing of population, economic growth, urbanization rate have an incremental effecting on carbon emissions in Heilongjiang, and these are the driving factors of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang province continued to increase. The reduction of energy intensity has a reducing effect on carbon emissions, it is an important way to realize the carbon emission reduction in Heilongjiang province by increasing operating factor of energy.